The stock market in India is our favorite market, and we expressed that many times in the last 18 months. Our India stock market outlook for 2017 is coming to pass.
Recently, we made another bullish call on the Indian stock market right at a time it was ready to challenge all-time highs. Things evolved faster than we anticipated, as the India stock market broke above 9000 points suggesting a major bull market was starting.
This analyst visibly does not see a bull market in Indian stocks. He looks at some macro economic data and the Indian currency to make such a call. That is certainly not what the weekly chart of Indian stocks suggests. As seen below, the Indian stock market lookings very strong. The recent breakout should be considered the cherish on the cake.
Is there a chance of a false breakout? Good question, and it is always the case, no matter which market or asset you are looking at, a false breakout should never be excluded. In the case of India, all factors are favorable, even big picture conditions are bullish given emerging stock markets broke out recently.
The Nifty 50 index, which represents the stock market in India, see chart below, is now slightly retracing after moving in one straight way up from 7900 points to 9250 points. Any such rally needs a pause, and that is what the Nifty 50 index is probably doing right now.
A test of the breakout level at 9000 points is the most likely scenario. We would not exclude a fall to the 8600 to 8800 level as that would be a normal retracement and nothing concerning for India stock market bulls.