Stocks and crypto lifted after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks. This week turns on Friday’s PCE and what it means for a September cut.
Powell’s comments nudged markets to price higher odds of a September rate cut, but the decisive test lands Friday, Aug 29, when the BEA publishes July Personal Income and Outlays.
ETF flows show fragile risk appetite, with US spot BTC funds seeing heavy redemptions last week and spot ETH funds swinging from large outflows to a sharp rebound.
Macro Cue: PCE And Policy Odds
The BEA calendar pins PCE for Friday, Aug 29. A cooler core print would reinforce expectations for a September 25 bp cut, which CME FedWatch had been pushing toward around 90% after Powell’s speech, though some trackers now show 70–80%.
Dollar and front-end yield direction into Friday will set crypto’s tone.
Bitcoin Flows, Vols, And Positioning
US spot BTC ETFs recorded a one-day net outflow of about $523M on Tue, Aug 19, led by withdrawals at major issuers.
Options imply a calm tape, with 30-day IV recently hovering in the mid-30s and only flickering higher from 33 to 37 last week.
Deribit notes longer-dated skew leaning to puts into Jackson Hole, and spot interest has tended to reappear near $112K while supply capped rallies closer to $120K. Watch whether early-week flows stabilize.
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Ethereum ETF Whipsaw And Supply Optics
US spot ETH ETFs showed a $196.6M net outflow on Mon, Aug 18, then flipped to a $287.6M net inflow on Thu, Aug 21.
U.S. spot ETH ETFs now hold roughly 5% of circulating ETH, which amplifies the impact of macro-led flow swings.
Price leadership versus BTC has pushed the ETH/BTC ratio to a 2025 high, reinforcing sensitivity to this week’s data.
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Conclusion
Base case, crypto stays quiet into Friday as traders wait for PCE. A softer core print that lowers yields and the dollar would support a comeback in ETF inflows and a modest IV lift.
A hotter print risks renewed outflows and persistent put skew. Let PCE, yields, and daily ETF tapes guide bias.
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