While a secondary rally pushed prices toward $2.40 in January 2026, the market has since fallen under the firm control of sellers.

Presently, XRP sits beneath critical trend levels, with technical indicators suggesting a deficit in bullish momentum. Trading volume has cooled significantly, hinting at a market that lacks the urgency seen in previous cycles.

As buyers move to the sidelines rather than “chasing” rallies, XRP finds itself at a pivotal juncture: the asset must now demonstrate structural strength before a credible case for an upside reversal can be made.

So, should you buy XRP now? Let’s examine the factors shaping this analysis.

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XRP Price History And Recent Drop

The shadow of XRP’s recent highs continues to loom over current market sentiment. The rally to $3.66 in July 2025 represented the asset’s most significant performance in years, yet the subsequent “lower high” at $2.40 in January 2026 confirmed a shift in the long-term trend.

Since that peak, the market has been characterized by a persistent pattern of fading strength, where each failed recovery adds to the overhead supply.

Traders are now laser-focused on the $1.35 to $1.40 zone. Historically, such levels act as “memory” for the market; as long as price remains below them, the path of least resistance appears to be sideways or lower.

Furthermore, XRP’s correlation with the broader cryptocurrency market has tightened, meaning it currently lacks the independent “decoupling” momentum required to defy general market lethargy.

Why XRP Is Struggling Below $1.40?

The current weakness is not a product of a single event but rather a confluence of technical and fundamental pressures:

• Reinforced Resistance: Every rejection at $1.40 serves to discourage new capital and embolden short-sellers.
• Trend Alignment: XRP is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. For many institutional and trend-following traders, this is a “no-fly zone” that keeps them on the sidelines until a trend shift is confirmed.
• Declining Participation: In 2025, XRP futures open interest surged past $10 billion. Data from early 2026 shows this figure has contracted sharply, reflecting a significant reduction in risk appetite and speculative interest.
• Exchange Outflows vs. Price Action: Interestingly, roughly 7.03 billion XRP were withdrawn from exchanges in February. While such moves typically signal a “supply shock” that supports prices, the lack of a corresponding price jump suggests that the remaining “ask” side of the book is still too heavy for current demand to overcome.
• Macro Headwinds: The broader crypto market has entered a consolidation phase. When leaders like Bitcoin lose steam, altcoins – including XRP – often struggle to find the liquidity necessary for a breakout.

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Can XRP Reach $2 Again?

While a return to $2 remains a mathematical possibility, the technical window for such a move is narrowing. For an optimistic thesis to gain traction, the price must first reclaim $1.45 and establish it as a floor.

A sustained move beyond $1.60 would likely signal a trend reversal, though the ultimate test remains the 200-day moving average, currently hovering near $1.88.

Despite the technical hurdles, the fundamental expansion of the Ripple ecosystem remains a cornerstone for long-term observers.

Throughout 2025 and 2026, Ripple has aggressively expanded its institutional footprint, notably through the $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road and the $200 million purchase of Rail.

These strategic moves aim to bridge the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and the XRP Ledger.

“The U.S. market is effectively open for the first time due to the regulatory overhang of the former SEC coming to an end,” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently noted, underscoring a new era of corporate optimism.

XRP Price Prediction And Should You Buy?

Market analysts currently view XRP as being in a broad but fragile range between $1.20 and $1.50. While a decisive breakout could target $1.60, a failure to hold current support could see the token revisit the $1.15 level.

Forecasts for the remainder of 2026 vary wildly, reflecting the polarized sentiment in the market. Standard Chartered has maintained a bold projection, suggesting XRP could reach $8 by the end of 2026, driven by potential spot ETF inflows and massive institutional adoption.

However, current on-chain data and price action have yet to align with such an aggressive trajectory.

Offering a more grounded perspective, Matteo Greco, a senior research associate at Fineqia, emphasized the broader implications of XRP’s status.

“It is fair to assume that if XRP is not a security, barely any other digital asset can be considered that way,” Greco observed.

This perspective suggests that while the short-term price action is sluggish, the asset’s legal standing provides a “floor” of confidence for those with a multi-year horizon.

For many, a cautious approach – utilizing smaller positions and awaiting clear technical confirmation – may be more compelling than aggressive buying at these levels.

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Conclusion

At a price point below $1.40, XRP presents an interesting proposition for contrarian investors, yet the lack of immediate strength cannot be ignored. The prevailing trend remains heavy, and the burden of proof rests on the buyers to reclaim key resistance levels.

Until the market provides a signal of renewed urgency, a disciplined and patient strategy appears to be the most prudent path through the current uncertainty.