Silver traded at $66.75 an ounce on September 4, just above JPMorgan’s new Q4 target. The bank cut its forecast from $90, citing weaker physical demand and easing tightness.
However, the Silver Institute still forecasts a 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan cut its Q4 forecast from $90 to $63 and its 2026 average from $84.30 to $70.60.
- Solar silver demand could fall by 60 million ounces, or 30%, as manufacturers reduce silver use and switch materials.
- The Silver Institute still expects a 46.3Moz deficit, with total supply reaching about 1.05 billion ounces.
RECENTLY UPDATED: Silver Price Prediction For 2026 2027 2028 – 2030
Why JPMorgan Cut Its Silver Forecast
JPMorgan’s revised Silver price predictions are mainly due to weaker physical demand. The bank expects solar silver consumption to fall by about 60 million ounces in 2026.
Chinese imports weakened after March stockpiling ahead of PV export-tax changes. India also faces higher import duties and tighter import rules.
JPMorgan expects the gold-silver ratio to move toward 70. It fell below 45 in January but has since recovered as higher rates increased the cost of holding non-yielding metals.
The Deficit Challenges The Bearish Case
The weaker demand outlook does not eliminate the supply gap. The Silver Institute expects 2026 supply at 1.05 billion ounces, with mine output around 820Moz. Recycling and above-ground stocks must cover the remaining demand.
Price action remains fragile. Silver reached above $121 on January 29 before falling sharply. Price sources put silver at $66.75 on September 4. Support sits at $62.54 and $56.54, while a move above $71.54 would improve the near-term setup.
ALSO READ: Silver Fell Harder Than Gold. Is The Silver Rally Starting To Crack?
Why The $62-$63 Silver Area Matters
In our latest Gold & Silver Premium Alert, published on August 29, we identified $55-$62 as strong support for silver based on its price chart.
JPMorgan has now lowered its Q4 silver target to $63.
These levels were reached using different approaches, but they point toward a similar part of the silver chart. With silver trading at $66.75 on September 4, the $62-$63 area is now particularly important to watch.
A sustained move below this area could put greater focus on the lower end of our support zone. Holding above it would suggest silver is continuing to consolidate following its sharp correction from January’s highs.
Why Silver Could Remain Choppy
There is also a macro factor investors should watch: US Treasury yields.
In our August 29 premium alert, we highlighted the sharp rebound in the US 2-year Treasury yield following increasingly hawkish expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
This matters because higher yields can create a headwind for precious metals. Gold and silver generate no yield, making rising returns on interest-bearing assets an important factor in relative demand.
For this reason, our latest analysis suggested that September and October could remain choppy for silver, even if its longer-term supply deficit remains supportive.
That creates an important distinction. JPMorgan’s weaker demand outlook and higher yields could weigh on silver in the short term, while persistent physical-market deficits could remain relevant to the longer-term picture.
PREMIUM RESEARCH: Read our latest Gold & Silver Premium Alert for the charts behind our $55-$62 silver support zone, our latest gold and silver outlook, and the key market indicators we’re tracking.
Conclusion
JPMorgan’s $63 target is close to today’s price, forcing investors to reassess the downside. Solar demand weakness supports the bank’s prediction.
Yet the sixth consecutive deficit limits how quickly supply can adjust. InvestingHaven’s premium metals research tracks these price levels, forecasts and supply-demand shifts, to help you judge whether silver weakness signals opportunity or further downside.
