Silver is back at a critical price after Thursday’s sharp selloff. The metal fell to roughly $64.50, putting it within striking distance of JPMorgan’s $63 Q4 target.
The downtrend seems to have been triggered by higher inflation. U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% in August, while annual PPI accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%. Markets subsequently lifted the probability of a September Fed hike to about 70%.
Key Takeaways
- Silver fell 4.2% on September 10, with futures also dropping more than 5% after fresh inflation data.
- JPMorgan cut its Q4 2026 silver target from $90 to $63, making today’s price only about 2% higher.
- The Silver Institute still expects a 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, limiting the case for a sustained surplus.
RECENTLY UPDATED: Silver Price Prediction For 2026 2027 2028 – 2030
JPMorgan’s $63 Target Is Suddenly In Focus
JPMorgan cut its Q4 forecast to $63 an ounce in August. It also lowered its 2026 average forecast to $70, citing easing physical-market tightness, weaker demand and rising interest-rate risks.
Today’s decline puts silver only about $1.50 above that target. A further 2% drop would therefore take the metal below JPMorgan’s forecast.
Now, the issue is no longer whether silver can fall to $63. It is whether the market can sustain prices below that level if demand remains strong.
ALSO READ: JPMorgan Just Cut Its Silver Target 30%. Is The Market Mispricing Silver?
The Deficit Complicates The Bearish Case
The fundamental picture remains more supportive. The Silver Institute expects global mine production to remain broadly flat in 2026, with the market facing a 46.3Moz deficit. This marks a sixth consecutive annual shortfall.
Industrial demand still faces pressure from lower silver use in solar manufacturing. Yet persistent deficits mean the market continues relying on above-ground inventories to fill the gap.
Conclusion
Silver has moved quickly from a rebound toward $69 and closer to JPMorgan’s $63 target. However, the wider supply deficit leaves the outlook far from straightforward. Investors now face a tug of war between weaker industrial demand, tighter monetary policy and persistent market shortages.
InvestingHaven’s premium metals analysis goes deeper into these competing forces, price targets and potential scenarios to give you a more educated view of the market.
For now, a break below $63 would give JPMorgan’s bearish forecast a stronger technical signal, while a recovery above recent resistance would challenge it.
