KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Brent surged about 13% in one session, lifting short-term revenue forecasts for upstream oil producers.
- Exxon Mobil gained roughly 4% as traders recalculated cash flow under higher crude assumptions.
- Indonesia Energy’s small market cap, about $88M, creates amplified upside during oil price spikes.
- Raytheon rose 4% to 6% as defence orders and replenishment demand increased immediately.
Oil spikes and defence orders surge as tensions escalate, lifting cash flow for producers and strengthening military backlogs worldwide.
Oil markets reacted fast when tensions between Washington and Tehran intensified in early March 2026. Brent crude jumped about 13% in a single session, while WTI climbed roughly 8%. Tanker insurance costs increased and freight rates moved higher as traders priced in supply risk across key shipping routes.
These price actions feed directly into company earnings. When crude rises by double digits in days, upstream producers capture stronger realized prices almost immediately. Large integrated oil companies also benefit from improved trading spreads and refining margins.
Defence stocks moved in tandem. Shares of major contractors advanced between 4% and 6% as investors factored in higher missile replenishment orders and expanded procurement budgets. Governments replenish inventory quickly after regional escalations.
This creates visibility for revenue and backlog growth. Analysts responded by revising 2026 earnings and free cash flow projections across energy and aerospace names.
As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, we have identified four stocks that are likely to explode.
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1. Indonesia Energy Corp Ltd
Indonesia Energy Corp Ltd operates producing oil and gas assets in Indonesia. It is a small-cap upstream company with a market value of about $88M. That size makes the stock highly sensitive to crude price swings.
When Brent rises 10% or more in a short period, realized selling prices for producers tied to benchmark pricing often adjust quickly. Even modest production volumes can translate into meaningful revenue gains under higher pricing.
The stock traded between $2.10 and $8.50 over the past year. During the early March oil surge, daily volume spiked and intraday percentage moves reached double digits. That kind of volatility reflects leverage to commodity pricing. Higher crude improves cash receipts, supports drilling plans, and strengthens balance sheet flexibility if sustained.
For this stock, focus on production updates, reserve reports, and funding capacity for new wells. Small producers face execution risk, but they also offer direct exposure to oil price momentum.
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2. RTX Corp.
RTX Technologies generates revenue from missile systems, radar platforms, aircraft engines, and maintenance services. In 2025 the company reported about $88.6B in annual sales. Its defence backlog stretches across multiple years, giving investors earnings visibility even during market stress.
Following the US-Iran escalation, the stock advanced between 4% and 6%. This reflected expectations for accelerated missile replenishment and air defence system demand. Governments typically move quickly to restock precision systems after conflict events and this translates into contract modifications and fresh awards, which feed into backlog growth.
RTX combines high-margin defence programs with stable aerospace services revenue, a mix that supports cash flow even if commercial aviation cycles slow.
Keep tabs on Pentagon budget updates, announced contract awards, and quarterly backlog figures. Execution delays and supply constraints for specialized components remain key risks.
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3. Exxon Mobil
Exxon Mobil sits at the center of global oil markets. As one of the largest integrated producers, it captures gains from both upstream production and refining operations.
Higher crude strengthens upstream margins immediately. Refining units can also benefit if product prices adjust faster than input costs. Exxon’s scale allows it to redirect volumes toward higher-margin regions, while its trading desks capture short-term arbitrage opportunities.
The company maintains a strong dividend and an active buyback program, which support shareholder returns even during volatility.
To keep track of this stock, watch weekly U.S. inventory data, OPEC production signals, and shipping insurance rates. These variables influence short-term price swings and refining spreads.
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4. BP plc
BP PLC provides integrated exposure across upstream production, refining, and commodity trading. When Brent moves sharply higher, trading desks often capture wider product spreads. On the latest surge, BP shares rose about 2% to 3% as European energy markets responded.
BP has delivered solid trading performance in recent quarters. Its commercial teams optimize crude sourcing and product sales, which can lift earnings during price dislocations.
The company also maintains dividend commitments that appeal to income-focused investors.
If you are interested in BP, watch reported refining margins, trading updates, and commentary on European fuel demand. Volatility in crude prices can boost profits quickly, but refining outages or regulatory changes can temper gains.
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Conclusion
The recent escalation produced two immediate financial effects: Crude oil jumped sharply, lifting upstream cash flow expectations and defence contractors gained as procurement activity accelerated.
Indonesia Energy offers direct leverage to higher oil prices. Raytheon captures defence demand growth. Exxon and BP provide scale and diversified earnings tied to stronger crude markets.
