We are watching India very closely, as said several times lately. It could seem difficult to invest in India, but with a simple ETF like INDA or INDY the Indian stock market is easily accessible to anyone. We do not recommend stock picking, but rather investing in an ETF of the index.
Fundamentally, India has a incredible real GDP growth of 7.3%, making the country an attractive target for investors. Its stock market broke out at 6250 points, in early 2014, which was a major breakout.
Going forward, we see two scenarios unfolding
- Either the Indian index goes for a retest of the breakout point.
- Or the index finds support at this secular trenline which it is testing right now.
Although we can never exclude anything in markets, scenario 1 seems stretched as it would create a whole new trend channel. Never say never, but we believe secular support will hold. Before investing any cent, however, investors always have wait for a confirmed signal.
Watch the 7300 level very carefully, as price behavior around that level will reveal critically important information about the two scenarios we outlined above.