Our gold price prediction for the coming years is directionally bullish. Some periods of weakness with gold price pullbacks may be expected. Gold price targets: $3,150 in 2025 and closer to $3,800 by 2026 with a peak gold price prediction of $5,150 by 2030.
Gold price prediction – outline
You can read the summary of our gold price prediction or you can read our entire article to understand the true dynamics driving the gold price.
- 1. Gold price prediction 2024, 2025, 2026, 2030: a summary.
- 2. Gold price breakout in all world currencies.
- 3. Gold price charts: long term charts.
- 4. Gold bull market: monetary dynamics.
- 5. Gold price fundamental driver: inflation expectations.
- 6. Gold price leading indicators: currency & credit markets.
- 7. Gold price leading indicators: the futures market.
- 8. Gold price predictions: an overview.
- 9. Gold or silver? Or both
- 10. Gold predictions by institutions
- 11. Gold predictions FAQ
We start with a quick summary of our gold price prediction and continue presenting the extensive research of how we got to these gold price predictions.
1. Gold price forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026, 2030
This is the outcome of our gold price prediction analysis outlined in the remainder of this article.
- 2024: max gold price around $2,700.
- 2025: max gold price right above $3,150.
- 2026: max gold price around $3,800.
- 2030: peak gold price prediction $5,150.
The ranges indicated in this summary are estimates produced by InvestingHaven’s research, based on current and predicted intermarket trends and secular gold charts.
RELATED – Can Gold Ever Hit $10,000 an Ounce?
Gold’s bullish thesis invalidates once it drops and stays below $1,770 which is a low probability outcome.
2. Gold price breakout in all world currencies.
Most gold price forecasts are U.S. centric which means gold expressed in USD.
What many investors don’t realize is that gold started setting new all-time highs in each and every global currency as evidenced by this magnificent chart (courtesy o Goldchartsrus).
This process started early 2024. It was the ultimate confirmation of the gold bull market.
3. Gold price charts: long term charts.
Start with the chart.
We take a top-down approach: we start with the 50-year gold chart to understand dominant secular dynamics followed by the gold price over 20 years for medium to long term dynamics.
Gold chart over 50 years – the bullish case
The 50-year gold chart in USD shows 2 secular bullish reversal patterns:
- In the 80s and 90s – a long falling wedge. This was such a long (hence strong) pattern that the subsequent bull market was unusually long.
- Between 2013 and 2023 – a secular cup and handle formation.
The recent 10-year bullish reversal is powerful.
As said, ‘long’ equals ‘strong’ when it comes to consolidations and reversal pattern. This creates a strong argument for a strong gold bull market in the years to come, with a high confidence level.
The secular gold chart suggests that the gold bull market will run over multiple years.
December 11th – The long term gold bull market is confirmed with 3 quarterly candlesticks above former ATH. Gold is officially in a secular bull market. Only a drop below $2,200 an Ounce for 3 consecutive months will invalidate the bull market thesis.
Gold chart over 50 years – the bearish case
The long term gold chart structure shown below has a very different looking compared to the same chart with different annotations shown above:
- Below is a rising wedge which by definition is a bearish pattern.
- However, this is in contrast to the strongly bullish pattern on the above shown chart.
- A bearish outcome will occur if gold leaves a large wick on its quarterly candlestick chart (below) similar to the ones in 1980 and 2011. This is not the likely outcome, as gold only rose 30% after its breakout in April of 2024 (in 1980 and 2011, it went up triple digits before hitting a big top).
We always need to be mindful of the two sides of the trade, no matter how unlikely some outcomes may be.
December 11th – The bearish thesis may or may not materialize. When it comes to the current quarterly candlestick, it is clear that it won’t leave a large wick similar to 1980 and 2011. This implies that the next quarterly candlestick (Jan – March 2025) will be the decisive candle to invalidate the bearish setup potential of the rising wedge (the potential bearish case).
Gold chart over 20 years
We look at the 20-year gold chart setup:
- A gold bull market tends to start slowly and accelerate towards the end.
- The last gold bull market experienced three phases.
Given the bullish cup and handle reversal between 2013 and 2023, we can reasonably expect a multi-staged gold bull market going forward.
REMEMBER – History does not repeat, it does rhyme.
November 29th – Here are a few important points as November 2024 concludes. On the one hand, depressing headlines pop up like this one from Reuters Gold braces for worst month in over a year on Trump-driven sell-off. What Reuters failed to report:
- Gold experienced 8 consecutive winning months. A break is a mandatory thing.
- The November 2024 candle is slightly smaller compared to the October 2024 candle. Specifically the body of the Oct candle starts at $2656 /oz while the closing price of the Nov candle is $2664 /oz. This means that November is not a rejection (which would have occurred in case Nov would have closed well below $2656).
This is one of the major reasons why we continue to emphasize to stay away from the news – it’s confusing!
4. Gold bull market: monetary dynamics.
Gold is a monetary asset. It is driven by monetary dynamics.
As seen on below chart, the monetary base M2 continued its steep rise in 2021; it started stagnating in 2022.
Historically, we see that gold and the monetary base move in the same direction. Golds tend to overshoot the monetary base but mostly it tends to happen temporarily.
The monetary dynamic eventually pushed the price of gold so much higher in 2024; the divergence between M2 and the gold price was not sustainable.
The divergence did not last – we explained this in each and every of our recent gold forecasts – it appeared an accurate assessment.
December 11th – Gold did entirely catch up with one of its leading indicators: monetary inflation. We used the divergence on this chart, back in 2022, as our bullish gold thesis, at a time when common belief was for gold to enter a bear market. In hindsight, our gold price prediction appeared to be right, and so is the accuracy and relevance of our leading indicator readings.
Similarly, gold tends to track the CPI (inflation).
The divergence between CPI and the price of gold was temporary.
We expect both CPI and the gold price to rise in synch in the coming years, underpinning a soft price uptrend in 2025 and 2026.
The CPI combined with M2 seem to be experiencing a stable growth. This will drive a soft uptrend in the price of gold.
December 11th – Gold and CPI keep on rising ‘hand in hand’ as evidenced by this next chart. This correlation supports our long term gold price predictions simply because central banks aim for 2% annual CPI, (in)directly stimulating the gold price.
5. Gold price fundamental driver: inflation expectations.
By far, the most important fundamental driver of gold is inflation expectations. It’s the most important element of our gold price forecasts.
That’s because gold shines in an inflationary environment.
Many analysts believe that fundamentals of gold are related to supply/demand dynamics, economic outlook, recessions, and the likes.
We thoroughly disagree.
Our research has shown that inflation expectations is THE fundamental driver of gold.
Consequently, fundamental analysis of gold is based on inflation expectations (TIP ETF).
TIP ETF came down in 2022 which explains why gold was so volatile in 2022. The long term trendline was respected. Essentially, the next chart says it all.
December 11th – Gold and TIP ETF keep on rising nicely together. In a way, the TIP uptrend seems to be leading gold higher. As long as TIP ETF remains within its rising channel it will create an environment supportive for gold.
Inflation expectations correlations with gold and stocks
Historically, the price of gold and TIP ETF have been positively correlated.
Only exceptionally have both been diverging.
December 11th – Historically, gold and TIP ETF tend to be positively correlated. They only temporarily diverge. As seen below, a rise in TIP ETF is the ultimate leading indicator for the gold price. This correlation chart, combined with divergences that only last max. 6 months (based on recent history), gives us confidence in long term bullish gold price predictions.
Interestingly, gold is strongly correlated with TIP ETF which is strongly correlated with SPX.
When we look at the historic relationship between TIP, gold and stocks, we can see how a decline in TIP has led to lower gold and stock prices. The opposite is true as well. This, eventually, is the ultimate answer to those that pretend that gold is thriving well during a recession; that’s not true and invalidated by below chart!
December 11th – Gold, TIP and even the S&P 500 are positively correlated. Gold needs a positive market environment to thrive. This debunks the myth of gold needing uncertain economic conditions, below chart invalidates that thought.
6. Gold price leading indicators: currency and credit markets.
One of the two leading indicators for the price of gold price is an intermarket dynamic driven by currency and credit markets. In particular, gold is correlated to:
- The Euro (inversely correlated to the USD).
- Bond prices (positively correlated most of the times, not always though).
Gold tends to go up when the Euro is in a bullish mindset. Consequently, when the USD is rising it puts pressure on gold.
The EURUSD looks pretty strong here. This creates a gold-friendly environment.
December 11th – The secular EURUSD chart is an important indicator for the gold price, especially at times when the EURUSD is falling fast. Back in 2008, 2013, 2022, the EURUSD noticed significant declines which resulted in large drops in the price of gold & silver. The rule of thumb, on the highest timeframe, is that the EURUSD should not be in a steep decline in order to create a supportive environment for gold & silver. At the time of updating this post, the EURUSD is struggling but it’s certainly not in a strong downtrend.
Treasuries are positively correlated to gold, bond yields are inversely correlated to gold.
That’s because of the effect of changes in yields on the net inflation rate.
With the prospects of rate cuts all over the world, it is expected that Yields will not move higher. This is supportive for gold.
December 11th – The chart of Yields is supportive of a gold friendly environment.
7. Gold price leading indicators: the futures market.
The 2nd leading indicator for gold is the futures market, particularly net short positions of commercials.
The way to read this next chart:
- The first pane shows the gold price over 9 years.
- The center pane features net long positions of non-commercials in blue. Red bars represent net short positions of commercials.
- We think of the net short positions of commercials as a ‘stretch indicator’. If those positions are very low, the price of gold cannot be ‘suppressed’ too much. Conversely, if those positions are ‘stretched’ (high), the price of gold has not a lot of upside and/or it cannot rise fast.
The current state of net short positions of commercials, when combined with the above mentioned leading indicators and fundamental driver (inflation expectations) suggest a soft uptrend in gold is possible. The net short positions of commercials remains elevated.
NOTE – The above mentioned leading indicator is one of the data points that is related to the gold price manipulation theory. Late Theodore Butler was able to articulate the relationship between the gold futures market and gold manipulation in a very detailed way.
8. Gold price predictions: an overview
The gold charts and gold’s leading indicators confirm that gold is set to rise in the coming years.
A soft gold bull market is our thesis – an acceleration to the upside will take place later this decade.
The overview of our gold price prediction analysis:
- Secular gold price charts – a gold bull market is the result of a 10-year bullish reversal completion.
- Gold prices in global currencies – the gold bull market started in all global currencies early 2024, before the gold price USD breakout in March/April of 2024.
- Monetary dynamics – M2 and CPI are steadily rising, this underpins a soft gold bull market.
- Fundamental gold price driver – inflation expectations are respecting a secular rising channel which supports the gold bull market thesis.
- Gold price leading indicators (EUR & Treasuries) – the EUR and Treasuries both look bullish on their secular timeframes; this creates a gold-friendly environment.
- Gold price leading indicator (COMEX) – the gold futures market positioning suggests stretched net short positions by commercials which limits the upside potential in the gold price, a soft uptrend is possible though.
All this leads us to believe that the price of gold will continue its steady rise.
Gold price prediction overview:
This is our forecasted gold price for the coming years. Prices reflect gold's spot price.| Year | Gold price prediction |
|---|---|
| 2024 | $1,900 to $2,700 |
| 2025 | $2,350 to $3,150 |
| 2026 | $2,800 to $3,800 |
| 2030 | Peak price: $5,150 |
NOTE – Our initial gold price prediction for 2024 was $2,555 – we published this target back in October 2023 – this predicted target was achieved in August 2024.
NOTE – Bullish gold price predictions invalidate once gold falls and stays below < $1,770 (very low probability).
9. Gold or silver? Or both?
Should investors focus on gold or silver in 2025 and beyond?
READ – Silver price prediction 2025 through 2030
Our answer is very clear: silver will be explosive sooner or later while gold will be steady!
Both gold and silver will have a function in a diversified portfolio.
Silver has strong fundamentals. The grey metal tends to accelerate its uptrend at a later gold bull market stage.
December 11th – The gold to silver ratio suggests a huge undervaluation of silver relative to gold. It is a matter of time until silver will catch up.
10. Gold forecasts by institutions
In this section, we benchmark our own forecasts against those of prominent financial institutions.
Gold price predictions for 2025 from financial institutions
- Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target from $2,700 to $2,900 in 2025.
- J.P. Morgan predicts a range of $2,775 to $2,850.
- BofA projects gold to hit $3,000/oz.
- UBS anticipates gold reaching $2,700 by mid-2025.
- Commerzbank: gold to reach $2,600 by mid-2025.
- ANZ predicts $2,805 to be hit by the end of 2025.
- Macquarie forecasts a spike towards $3,000/oz.
- Citi Research predicts $2,800 to $3,000/oz.
- ING Bank predicts gold prices averaging $2,700.
- Citibank predicts a gold price of $3,000/oz in 2025.
- HSBC forecasts gold prices from $2,350 to $2,950.
- Commonwealth Bank predicts average gold prices of $3,000 in 2025.
- Société Générale predicts an average gold price in 2025 of $2,800.
- World Gold Council foresees a gold price of $3,000 in 2025.
- OCBC Bank raises its gold price target for 2025 from $2,700 to $2,900.
- Heraeus Precious Metals expects a gold price of $2,950 in 2025.
InvestingHaven’s bullish outlook
In contrast, InvestingHaven’s prediction for gold in 2025 stands at approximately $3,100, reflecting a more bullish outlook than those of other institutions. This divergence highlights our belief in leading indicators of the gold price, including heightened inflation and increasing central bank demand. Additionally, the very bullish chart patterns in long-term gold charts tell a compelling story.
A convergence of gold predictions by institutions written in September 2024
The outlook for gold in 2025 shows a convergence around the $2,700 to $2,800 range. Most institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, BofA, J.P. Morgan, ING Bank, and Citi Research, predict prices that fall within this narrow range.
Only Macquarie stands out as an outlier with a more conservative estimate, projecting a peak of $2,463 in Q1 2025.
Adjusted gold price predictions by institutions as of November 2024
The latest forecasts from financial institutions reveal a growing optimistic outlook for gold prices in 2025, with a noticeable convergence around the $2,700 to $2,800 range.
Goldman Sachs and BofA stand out with revised targets, now predicting prices of $2,900 and $3,000, respectively, suggesting a shift towards a more bullish sentiment among some analysts.
Additionally, institutions like the Commonwealth Bank and the World Gold Council also forecast prices around $3,000, confirming a bullish narrative.
Overall, while the majority of institutions maintain a cautious yet positive stance on gold prices, the adjustments reflect growing confidence in the metal’s potential to respond favorably to economic conditions in 2025.
11. Gold predictions FAQ
Is gold bullish or bearish?
The question whether gold is bullish or bearish is relative, it depends on the timeframe. Gold is long term bullish; there are a lot of bullish gold charts on the secular timeframe. Around year-end (2024), the short term picture in gold is flat with a bearish undertone.
Is the gold price predicted to drop in the short term?
While the price of gold is experiencing a good flow, it may need a short break in the short term (October & November 2024). A small pullback is a healthy thing; the $2,550 level should hold even though news in recent days is diverging: geopolitical news deteriorating, Trump trade, Goldman’s gold outlook vs. other banks.
What will gold be worth in 5 years from now?
The peak gold price forecast for the coming years, heading into 2030, is in the range $4,500 to $5,000. A gold price of $5,150 is a reasonable target by or before 2030. This psychologically important level might be a peak price.
Can the price of gold ever rise to $10,000?
While a gold price of $10,000 is not unimaginable, it will require extreme market conditions for it to materialize. In case inflation gets out of hand, similar to the 70s, gold may rise to $10k. Alternatively, in case of extreme fear by geopolitical tensions, gold may hit $10k.
Read more Can Gold Ever Hit $10,000 an Ounce?
What will gold be worth in 10 years from now?
For this, we prefer to stick to the gold peak price prediction by 2030. That’s because market conditions tend to change every decade. It is impossible to forecast what might happen past 2030. The gold peak prediction by 2030 is $5,150 under regular market conditions.
What will the price of gold be in 2040 and 2050?
Frankly, it is an illusion to believe that anyone can predict the gold price more than ten years into the future. The reason: each decade presents its own unique macroeconomic dynamics, which change significantly every decade. This dominant market dynamic makes it impossible to forecast gold prices beyond 2030.
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