Tag: 2021 Forecasts

We will start publishing 2021 forecasts much earlier than in the past. Usually we publish our forecasts one year ahead. Going forward we will publish our forecasts for a time period of 24 months.

In other words we expand the timeframe of our forecasts from 12 to 24 months. That’s why our forecasts published at the end of 2019 will do predictions for a period until 2021 included.

As part of our 2021 forecasts we expect a few trends. First of all, we believe 2021 will be the year in which global stock markets will set a major peak after which they will start correcting. We expect a RISK ON cycle in stock markets in 2020 and in 2021. Second, we do expect, because of this, crypto markets to do very well going into 2021. We may see another major peak similar to 2017 in crypto markets, although in a more controlled fashion and only for value add cryptocurrencies (not all of them like back then).

If all this is true Treasuries will set a major bottom in 2021. Rates will fall going into 2021.

When it comes to commodities we expect some select commodities to do well. It is too hard to predict which ones exactly. In order to forecast which commodities will do well we need a bit more time. Why? Because commodities as an asset class (as a group) are near a major bottom. Moreover they basically went nowhere between mid-2016 and end-2019. A major consolidation is good for the long term but in the interim it is hardly possible to forecast which one will break out when.

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