The Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years has a phenomenal setup. This article features several views of the Dow Jones 100-year historical chart. One of the take-aways is that the Dow Jones is consolidating right below its 100-year rising channel. It clearly wants to re-retest its 2021 highs around 37.5k. The date we derive from the Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years is April/May of 2024. In other words, we believe that 2024 start very well, and a decision point is due in May/June of 2024.
In this article we look at the Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years on multiple timeframes. We use the same 100-year chart and look at the monthly, weekly, daily timeframes.
- Dow Jones: secular turning point
- Dow Jones Chart On 100 Years: monthly
- Dow Jones 100 Years Historical Chart: Distinct phases
- Dow Jones Chart On 35 and 7 Years
- Dow Jones Chart On 50 and 20 Years
Dow Jones: secular turning point
One of the questions top of mind of investors is when markets turn down decisively, and start a multi-year bearish trend.
If we try to resolve this question, by looking at the Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years, we believe we see resistance right below 40k points, presumably around 38-39k points. This level will be hit at the start of 2024.
While the next touch of resistance of the Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years, mid-2024, might come with a pullback, it’s not necessarily going to be a secular bearish turning point similar to the one in the year 2000 or 1929.
From a timeline perspective, we believe the big secular turning point is due late this decade, somewhere between 2027 and 2028. Between now and then, there will be pullbacks and rallies, but no secular bearish turning point, according to our cycle analysis.
Dow Jones Chart On 100 Years: monthly
The longest timeframe of the Dow Jones chart is the quarterly chart on 100 years
Chart update: November 2023
The one and only time that the Dow Jones index fell below its 100-year rising channel was in 1930 and in 1974. No coincidence the Wall Street crash of 1929 resulted in the Dow Jones falling to levels so low even on a 100-year rising channel.
A rising channel is a common thing on any chart. However, it is really exceptional to see a 100-year channel like the one on the Dow Jones historical chart.
Another important observation on the 100-year chart of the Dow Jones is the outcome every time it touches resistance.
- Each and every time the top of this giant channel is tested it resulted in a long and/or exceptionally aggressive decline.
- The tests of resistances that took place in the last 100 years: 1928, 2000, arguably 2020 (although not perfect).
- In 2021, the Dow Jones index exceeded its 100-year channel for some 12 months (until April/May of 2022).
This brings up the question whether aggressive selling can be expected heading into 2023 or 2024? The one big difference between the occurrences in 1929 and 2000 is that the rally into the top of the channel was a very steep, a multi-year rally. The shape is materially different in the period 2019-2023. This makes it doubtful that the test of resistance in 2022 is going to trigger a violent sell-off
Dow Jones 100 Years Historical Chart: Distinct phases
Basically, between 1932 and 1966, the Dow Jones index has risen 10-fold.
Buying in 1966 would have been catastrophic for one’s portfolio. That is because the Dow was trading in the upper area of its long term channel. The Dow corrected combined with sideways trading during 2 decades after which it tested support levels multiple times. As of 1984, the Dow went in almost one straight line up until the year 2000.
Between 2000 and 2013 the Dow has traded in a wide range.
In 2013 a triple top breakout took place. Arguably, that’s the moment when the stock bull market started, not March 2009.
At the time of the writing the last update of this article, which is June of 2023, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is trading in its upper band of its long term rising channel. It does not trade at an extreme level though, it is some 15% below extreme levels.
Chart update: November 2023
Note that the Dow Jones now trades for more than 2 years at/around resistance of its 100-year channel. This has not happened before in history. While this may continue for several more years, it won’t last forever. We believe that the top of this rising channel may be tested up to 7 years which ‘nicely’ aligns with the secular bearish turning point timeframe starting in 2028 .
Dow Jones Chart On 35 and 7 Years
In this section, we look at the last 35 as well as 7 years of the Dow Jones 100 year chart pattern
As seen, the Dow Jones index was able to clear the 100-year channel in March of 2021. However, it fell back into its channel in April of 2022. Since then, the bias has been bullish with a tendency to continue to move towards the resistance line of the 100-year channel (which continues to rise obviously).
Chart update: November 2023
If we zoom in even more and look at the last 7 years we see how resistance of the 100-year channel was tested mid-August 2022 (please check the wick and rejection on below chart). The subsequent move has been interesting: a continued attempt to move higher and go back to the top of the channel (which was not hit since April & August of 2022).
This view suggests that a topping pattern is in the making. However, the rally to the top of the channel was not as steep as back in 20ies and 90ies. The recovery after the Corona crash was steep, but the Dow Jones has been slowly making its way higher since 2017. So, this suggests that the Dow Jones might consolidate for a while as opposed to crashing similar to 1929 or 2001/2.
Chart update: November 2023
Dow Jones Chart On 50 and 20 Years
In this section, we look at two completely different timeframes: Dow Jones on 50 and 20 years
This chart view shows the Dow Jones on 50 years. There is some more upside potential for 2024 according to this chart. While the 100-year chart suggested a local top around 38k, this chart view might bring the Dow Jones closer to 40k points by next summer, provided we enter a bullish timeframe (which, most likely, we did in Oct/Nov of 2023).
Chart update: November 2023
For the 20-year chart, which comes with some very interesting insights, we copy a quote from another Dow Jones article we recently wrote Dow Jones Long Term Chart On 20 Years:
By combing the insights from the Dow Jones charts +20 years with the one below, we conclude that there is a high probability that the Dow Jones will move to 37k points in the first half of 2024 (where it will test the ‘end of the risk off structure’ and also the 100-year channel). We can reasonably expect a quick pullback, followed by a secular breakout later in 2024 or 2025. This is how we combine insights from the multiple timeframes with the Dow Jones long term chart on 20 years.
The secular breakout of the Dow Jones is 36k points. This would conclude a risk-off period. If history is a guide, the current risk-off period should conclude soon.
Chart update: November 2023
We do expect that the Dow Jones will conclude its consolidation in 2023. This should open the door for a breakout early 2024. We should remain cautious in the summer of 2024. One potential scenario is a breakout above 36k points early 2024, followed by a strong rally and a re-test of 36k points. Note that we may derive other scenarios from our charting and timeline analysis, however we prefer to re-visit the scenarios early 2024.
Very, very important note: in March of 2021, the Dow Jones cleared the top of its 100-year channel around 31.7k points. This price point will continue to carry an above average importance, going forward. Evidence of this was confirmed in October of 2023, when the Dow Jones hit 32.4k as support (nearly hitting 31.7k).
In sum, we expect that the Dow Jones will work around 3 really important price points in 2024: 31.7k as solid support, 36k points as a secular breakout point (also resistance), 40k points as a strong and rounded number.
Must-see charts: 100 year #dowjones charts. The 100-year chart suggests that the Dow Jones will re-test its ATH highs before summer of 2024 which might come with a pullback. No secular bearish turning point until 2027 or 2028. Click To Tweet
In closing
Note that the Dow Jones Industrials Index was founded on February 16th, 1885, as per Wikipedia. The index tracks 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States.
The Dow Jones organization grew over time and now has lots of financial media in its group, think of MarketWatch and Barron’s.
Must-Read 2024 Predictions – We recommend you read our 2024 predictions as they are very well researched:
