Bitcoin is essentially trendless for one full month. Near the end of February, crypto started looking really ugly. As in, really ugly. However, the breakdown scenarios that we saw in the chart(s) invalidated within 72h. We marked March 4th + 72h as a decision window in which crypto would show its bearish or bullish intent. Today, we got the answer: BTC does not want to resolve lower in which case it will continue to be flat or resolve higher. we believe the latter is what we start seeing now.
Our premium crypto members received a message early this week in which we said: ‘Watch March 4th + 72h to understand what to do with your crypto profits’. A few quotes from that crypto alert:
Here is why we count down to March 4th, 2021: there are 2 scenarios that may play out, and we will know by March 4th + 72h.
Bullish scenario: bullish reversal that respects the yellow rounded reversal on the chart. BTC does not go below 40k (approx., on a daily open + closing basis).
Bearish scenario: BTC will hesitate around 42.5k around March 4th, or in the 72h that follow that day. If (a big IF) it doesn’t hold we’ll see fast decline. The picture below is hypothetical, but the point is that once the big red candle on this chart *would* materialize you’ll see how ugly this topping pattern in the grey area will become. We are *NOT* saying it will, we are saying it *could*. And March 4th + 72h is the timeframe in which it could happen (IF this is what the market intends to do).
What do we think? No idea, we’ll find out later this week.
There you have it: March 4th + 36h and Bitcoin (leading indicator for the crypto market) starts what we call a ‘break up’.
The consolidation area which was potentially a bearish topping pattern is now invalidating. We need 72h to confirm this. Moreover, and more importantly, the market may create a larger such topping pattern in which case the counting process starts all over again.
All we do know, for now, is this: BTC wants to resolve higher, and as long as 43k USD is respected on a 3 day open + closing basis it will likely resolve higher.
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