The 50-year silver price chart has a very powerful chart structure: a cup and handle formation. Silver is the only asses that has such a powerful long term structure. The 50-year silver chart has a very obvious target: 50 USD.
Admittedly, there is no other chart that has a a long term reversal similar to the one of silver. In fact, what stands out, is the exceptional duration of this formation. While we often see bullish reversals, also in the form of a cup-and-handle reversal, like the one of the 50-year silver chart, there is no other bullish reversal that has a reversal over 5 decades.
Silver’s secular bullish reversal is exceptional and unique.
Remember, there is a saying that goes “the longer the base the higher in space” which really means that there is more bullish energy the longer the bullish consolidation (reversal).
Stated differently, as silver has the longest bullish chart reversal it qualifies as the asset with most upside potential this decade.
Let’s ensure that readers understand what we are saying: the best investment opportunity of this decade is silver.
Silver rallies every decade
Silver has a track record of staging a rally, at least once per decade. In fact, whenever silver stages a rally, it ‘pumps’ hard, really hard.
Since the major top which was set in 1980 silver was able to stage exceptional rallies in these years:
- 1982
- 1987
- 2004-2008
- 2010-2011
- 2020
What stands out it that most of these years coincided with good year in stocks.
In other words, silver needs a stable stock market in order to stage its typical secular breakouts and double-digit to triple-digit rallies.
Interestingly, as we head into 2024, the stock market is showing signs of stabilizing and moving higher.
No surprise, we identified silver when analyzing the question which precious metal to buy for 2024. Without any doubt, silver is the strongest of the two precious metals going into 2024, 2025, 2026. In one of those years, silver will be touching 50 USD. We are convinced that silver will exceed 50 USD before the end of 2026.
One of the many reasons we believe so is the typical, historical pattern we see when analyzing the gold-to-silver ratio. In all instances when the gold-to-silver ratio exceeded 100x, it came with an historical silver rally soon after.
Note that we re-iterated our bullish silver forecast 2024:
The price of silver will move to our first bullish target of 34.70 USD in 2024. We predict 48 USD soon after, in 2024, not later than mid-2025.
Silver 50-year price chart: A secular bullish reversal
Silver’s 50-year price chart has this unusually long (hence strong) cup-and-handle formation.
When carefully analyzing the chart structure, we see a few characteristics worth calling out:
- The peaks of 1979 as well 2011. They frame up the giant ‘cup’ formation.
- The flat range in the 80ies and 90ies.
- The non-stop decline since 2011 which only accelerated in 2013. This bottomed between 2016 and 2018 with a big double bottom.
- The breakout of 2019 shows suggests the ‘handle’ formation is underway now.
What does this cup-and-handle suggest? This is how we interpret this chart:
- Silver turned its 8-year downtrend (previous decade) into an uptrend (this decade).
- This uptrend is likely going to last for a comparable number of years, notably 8 years (approximately).
- Assuming 2019 marked the start of the new silver uptrend, we expect silver to exceed all-time highs in 2025-2026.
- It is fair to assume that 50 USD will be touched before 2025, arguably in 2024 (certainly not later than 2025).
As we head into 2024, we believe there are some new insights that we derive from silver’s 50-year price chart:
- Silver confirmed its 8-year reversal pattern, in 2020, and is now clearly in the ‘bullish side’ of the long term bullish reversal.
- The consolidation since summer of 2020, in the meantime, more than 3 years, is close to switch to a new uptrend.
- Based on other chart timeframes, the real breakout of spot silver is 25 USD/oz.
- We believe that silver will exceed 25 USD/oz before 2024 kicks off, opening the door for 34.70 USD in 2024.
We believe that silver will trade around 34.70 USD in 2024 which is our silver price prediction 2024.
Bull market confirmed on silver’s 50-year chart
Note that we are no silver perma-bulls nor perma-bears. In fact, back in the summer of 2016, we turned bearish on precious metals. MarketWatch published in April of 2017 that silver peaked for the year. Bearish? Yes. But also realistic, as we understood this were prices that invited to accumulate. That’s also what we said a few months later on MarketWatch: accumulate silver.
In 2019, we turned bullish again, simply because the gold and silver charts were showing bullish setups.
As per Druckenmiller’s investing insights:
The mistake 98% of money managers and individuals make is they feel like they have got to be playing with a bunch of of stuff. And if you really see it, put all your eggs in one basket and watch the basket very carefully.
Two must-see silver chart for 2024
We feature two more silver charts, both over 20 years. Both of them have an insight which is complementary to the 50-year silver chart.
First, the 20-year silver chart with the most basic trendlines annotated shows that silver is very, very close to a breakout point. In fact, we derive 25 USD/oz as the secular breakout point of this 20-year chart structure.
One or two monthly closing prices above 25 USD/oz will confirm the start of the next big run in silver.
Moreover, we have another 20-year silver price chart, one which highlights the ‘April-effect’ (blue dotted lines). In fact, almost every April tends to unleash strong energy in silver, either bullish or bearish, very often marking turning points on the medium term oriented timeframe.
Let’s put it this way: the probability of silver closing above 25 USD/oz before 2024 kicks off is extraordinarily high. If this happens, we believe silver is able to run to 34.70 USD/oz not later than May of 2024.
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