Bitcoin Momentum Crossroads, MACD, ETF Flows & Macro

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows short-term strength with $446.6M in ETF inflows last week. The next few days will show whether this momentum can continue or fade under macro pressure.

Bitcoin starts the week at an important turning point. Technical charts show improving momentum, and institutional investors added $446.6M through spot ETFs last week. At the same time, on-chain activity looks stable but not explosive. 

This mix leaves Bitcoin balanced between a possible breakout and a short-term pullback, depending on how trading volume and macro trends evolve in the coming days.

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MACD, BTC Moving Averages, And Volume

The daily MACD has turned positive, signaling a possible short-term rally, while the weekly chart is still waiting for full confirmation. Bitcoin is trading just above key moving averages, which have acted as strong support in recent weeks. 

If price holds above $113,000 and the MACD continues to strengthen, momentum could extend higher. 

However, if trading volume stays weak and the price slips under $100,000, it may trigger a deeper correction. RSI remains neutral, suggesting the next strong move will depend on whether volume rises or fades.

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Institutional Flows And On-Chain Trends

ETF data shows steady institutional interest. Last week’s $446.6M inflow marks another week of positive sentiment, led by large funds such as BlackRock’s IBIT. 

On-chain activity, including active addresses and transfer volumes, remains consistent but not yet signaling a major wave of new demand. 

If Bitcoin ETF inflows continue at this pace, the coin could regain upside momentum. But if flows slow or turn negative, short-term selling pressure could increase.

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Fed Policy, Real Yields, And The Dollar

The macro backdrop remains critical. Any hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve or stronger U.S. dollar could weigh on Bitcoin. Conversely, signs of easing policy or softer inflation data could lift market sentiment. 

If you are trading, watch Fed speeches and inflation figures closely this week.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s next move depends on three key factors: the weekly MACD close, the direction of ETF flows, and upcoming Fed and dollar signals. 

A confirmed MACD uptrend with steady inflows could push prices above $114,000, while weaker momentum and falling flows may send it back toward $100,000.

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