It has been a great ride so far in Bitcoin and some cryptocurrencies. However, there will be a turning point, sooner or later, Bitcoin cannot continue to rise endlessly. These 4 indicators will tell us when crypto will be topping
Related – The Crypto Bull Market 2024 Is An Hidden Bull Market and Is The End Of Bitcoin’s Bull Market Here?
The four indicators we will discuss in this alert:
- Bitcoin’s topping pattern breakout will tell us whether BTC is able to move to $100k in this bullish cycle or whether $69-72k will be a topping area.
- The US Dollar needs to soften – both BTC and USD have been negatively correlated, very precisely.
- Crypto market cap excl. BTC/ETH may need to touch $829B, the question whether that market cap level will become resistance.
- The start of Doge’s breakout invalidated after 5 days – in case Doge is able to continue breaking out, in April, it might signal that one more crypto rally is in the cards in April/May.
Bitcoin’s chart
Bitcoin’s chart, if anything, shows the amazing ride of 2023 and 2024 (Q1 included).
Nothing rises endlessly. Bitcoin will need a break, sooner or later. The million dollar question is when exactly.
In other words, we are on the lookout for a turning point – where and when will BTC turn its uptrend into a downtrend? That’s the question we are trying to solve.
Alternatively, if BTC will be able to break out above its previous ATH, it should be able to move to $100k in this bull run. How to know if/when a bull run continuation to $100k will occur in 2024?
1. Watch Bitcoin’s topping pattern
Will crypto continue its rise in 2024? We watch Bitcoin’s topping pattern.
While the above chart has a long term focus, we zoom in to check the details. The devil is in the details, also when analyzing charts.
We look for micro-patterns to identify potential turning points but also trend continuation signals.
Bitcoin’s drop, on April 2nd, pushed it below the multi-month rising trendline. Moreover, there is a potential rounded pattern in play now – this rounded pattern is not confirmed but should be confirmed not later than April 8th.
If BTC is able to move above $72k by April 8th, it should be starting a run to $100k. Alternatively, it may need to move lower before it can move higher again.
While not visible on the next chart, when we analyze the timeline we expect one more 3-week rally in this new quarter. The million dollar question is whether it will occur early April or end of April. The guidance outlined above will tell us, in a few days from now, when one more rally before summer of 2024 will occur.
2. Watch the US Dollar
Will crypto continue its rise in 2024? We watch US dollar trends.
The dollar’s inverse correlation with BTC has been outspoken since last summer.
- BTC topped on July 14th, 2023, when the USD bottomed.
- The USD topped in Oct of 2023 after which BTC started an epic bull run.
- Every multi-week trend in the USD, since then, coincided with a BTC trend in the opposite direction.
That said, what matters, going forward, is how the USD behaves as it relates to its resistance area (105-107 points) but also its rounded pattern. That’s what is going to matter to BTC.
3. Watch total crypto market cap
Will crypto continue its rise in 2024? We watch crypto total market cap excl. BTC/ETH as it moves to $829B.
Towards the end of January, 2024, we became very bullish crypto. That’s when total crypto market cap excl. BTC/ETH showed signs of crossing a breakout level ($505B).
Going forward, we watch the exact opposite – total crypto market cap excl. BTC/ETH is expected to touch $829B as resistance. Whatever happens around $829B market cap, will be crucial (uptrend continuation vs. resistance).
4. Dogecoin – to break out or not to break out
Will crypto continue its rise in 2024? We watch Doge’s breakout attempt.
Ultimately, Dogecoin remains crypto’s momentum barometer.
Dogecoin crossed its 50% retracement level, at $0.19, one week ago. After 5 days (a Fibonacci number), is came back down, below $0.19.
It’s a breakout invalidation.
Let’s put it this way – whenever Dogecoin decides to clear $0.19, and stay there for 5 consecutive days without touching $0.19, it will be a strong confirmation that crypto markets are starting their last leg higher in 2024.
Conclusion – will crypto continue to rise in 2024 or not?
In sum, we believe there are 4 indicators to watch to understand if crypto will continue to rise in 2024. We believe that IF there is a bullish window in 2024, it should be either early April OR end of April / early May. We don’t see a lasting bullish window after mid-May 2024, for several months.
The 4 indicators to watch:
- Bitcoin’s topping pattern breakout will tell us whether BTC is able to move to $100k in this bullish cycle or whether $69-72k will be a topping area.
- The US Dollar needs to soften – both BTC and USD have been negatively correlated. How the USD will behave as it relates to its rounded chart pattern combined with the resistance area 105-107 will largely determine the possibility of BTC to continue its rise in April/May… or not.
- Crypto market cap excl. BTC/ETH may need to touch $829B, the question whether that market cap level will become resistance or not.
- Doge’s breakout above $0.19 is the ultimate crypto momentum indicator..
We see a few opportunities in crypto markets in April (until early May). Crypto has been highly bi-furcated during this crypto bull run, this is certainly not going to change anytime soon.
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