Solana (SOL) will likely resolve lower in August, which is consistent with our Solana prediction published many months ago. On August 5th, 2024, our short term bearish SOL prediction was confirmed. Price action in August of 2024 will determine whether our long term bullish forecast will hold.
UPDATE Aug 5th, 2024 – The crypto sell off today started, as predicted, in the first week of August. As explained in great detail in today’s crypto research note, a few tokens are holding up. For in-depth analysis on the state of the crypto market, when to be concerning, first insights about future winners, we recommend readers to read our detailed analysis instantly available in the restricted area: First Predicted Downside Target Hit. What’s Next?
What a difference a few days make in financial content on the web. Up until a few days ago, these were the news headlines (we left out the source):
- “Analyst Predicts Solana Rise To $1,400 As Similarities With July 2021 Emerge”
- “Solana Looks ‘Ripe To Push Higher’, Is A Mania-Like Rally To $600 Coming?”
- “Solana On Brink Of Unprecedented Surge To $1,000, Says Crypto Exec As SOL Overtakes BNB”
- “Solana on Verge of $200? Ethereum Smashes Resistance, XRP Set for $1 Breakout”
This page with SOL trade ideas even more extreme: Solana’s price drop is just visible by the article headlines.
NOTE: It’s really bad reading financial media content on the web as 99% is worthless for investors.
Crypto investors better get their act together and be picky about the sources and analysts they follow.
Solana (SOL) price drop accurately predicted
At InvestingHaven, we pride ourselves being honest and down to earth. We are not here to collect clicks, likes, subscribers. We are here to bring top notch analysis.
In our premium crypto research notes, we wrote this throughout the month of July:
- July 7th, 2024: “We have very clear time + price levels to watch for a final and lasting sell-off bottom in BTC. In terms of time: the last week of August or around Oct 20th. In terms of price: Either $50k or $41k”
- July 14th, 2024: “In this edition, we look once again at the 3 downside targets for Bitcoin late summer 2024. Specifically the month of August is expected to be volatile according to our timeline analysis.”
- July 23d, 2024: “We don’t see new ATH in July nor August, certainly not a new bull run above ATH is not for now. We don’t see a bullish reversal pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart.”
As Bitcoin is leading altcoins like Solana higher and lower, the above mentioned chart and market insights set the direction lower for Solana.
SOL price drop: concerning or not?
Is the Solana price drop concerning or not?
The short version of the answer: in the short term, it is concerning once it drops below $122. However, long term, this price drop is a healthy development.
Whenever emotions of fear and concern come up, it is imperative to zoom out.
A long term chart is the ultimate and only tool that helps keep emotions in check.
What do we see on the long term chart of Solana?
- The importance of one price point which should act as support: $122.
- An epic bullish support area between key Fibonacci levels – see ‘buy’ area on the chart.
- A long term rising trendline.
This gives plenty of downside potential in the short term. So far the bad news.
The good news is that a drop could create the ‘cup and handle’ formation which we forecasted for 2024 & 2025.
UPDATE Aug 5th, 2024 – The crypto sell off pushed the price of SOL right to the important $122 area. SOL investors need to watch how SOL will close in the next 3 to 5 days as it relates to the crucial $122 level. A break below $122 will open the door for accelerated selling to a point within our ‘buy the dip’ area (in the $80-$100 area).
SOL price to watch: $122
The one really important level on the short term is $122.
Let’s put it this way:
- If $122 will hold, in the period August to October, it will be tremendously bullish for SOL.
- The probability that $122 will give up, with a SOL price drop that will exhaust in the area $80 to $120, is reasonably high.
- This would not be a bad thing though, this is why.
From our Solana prediction page, written 4 months ago:
Visibly, SOL is working on a gigantic cup and handle reversal. Long term, this type of pattern tends to be very bullish. However, a drop is mandatory in order for the bullish energy to be unleashed.
SOL chart: long term chart pattern will be dominant
The more important finding from Solana’s chart is the long term pattern.
From our Solana prediction page, written 4 months ago:
InvestingHaven predicts that 2025 will be BULLISH for Solana. SOL is working on a a cup and handle pattern with resolution in 2025. SOL price targets in 2025 exceed $300, the most bullish targets are in the $500 to $1,000 area. Realistically, Solana can go as high as $650 in 2025.
That’s the point with a price drop – emotions prevent investors from seeing the big picture pattern.
Remember, big picture patterns are dominant and by far the most important dynamic to identify.
With that said, we firmly believe there is a path for SOL to new ATH. However, first a drop then the pop, is how we think about it. That’s not because we want so nor because we like it (our opinion is meaningless for markets); that’s because powerful long term bullish patterns require a bullish reversal pattern to unfold and complete.
We are in the process of identifying top SOL ecosystem tokens, they will be communicated in the coming weeks to members of our premium crypto research service.
