Our platinum price prediction for 2025 is mildly bullish. Platinum will exceed $1,250 only in case of stronger than expected industrial demand. Base case assessment: $900 to $1,100.
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Platinum, often referred to as a “precious metal with industrial strength,” is expected to significantly lag the yellow metal (gold) and grey metal (silver).
Platinum has unique properties and market dynamics that make it a fascinating case for analysis. However, the chart and leading indicator don’t look overly fascinating when it comes to price expectations in 2025.
Ultimately, however, platinum should react to the upside at a later stage in a matured gold and silver bull market. That might be in 2026 or 2027.
Platinum has a track record of following gold and silver, during a precious metals bull market, but as the laggard.
RELATED – A gold price prediction for 2025.
In this article, we explore key factors influencing platinum prices in order to conclude with a platinum price prediction for 2025 based on various scenarios.
The state of the platinum market in 2024
As we approach 2025, it’s crucial to understand where platinum currently stands.
In 2024, platinum experienced a relatively volatile year with supply constraints driven by:
- Geopolitical risks and labor strikes in major producing regions like South Africa;
- Fluctuating demand from the automotive and jewelry sectors.
- Weakness in the green energy space and EV sector.
Those factors led to significant price movements.
The metal traded within a range, showing resilience but also facing headwinds from broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
Needless to say, as these factors may continue to influence the platinum market, we have to factor this in when analyzing the platinum price prediction scenarios for 2025.
Platinum supply and demand dynamics
Platinum’s supply Side
Platinum’s supply is heavily concentrated, with South Africa accounting for nearly 70% of global production. This heavy reliance on a single region makes the platinum supply chain highly vulnerable to localized disruptions.
In recent years, factors such as labor strikes, energy shortages, and regulatory changes have impacted production levels, leading to supply squeezes.
These issues are likely to persist into 2025, keeping supply relatively tight.
Platinum’s demand Side
On the demand side, platinum plays a crucial role in various industries.
The automotive sector is a significant consumer of platinum, primarily for catalytic converters in hybrid vehicles and the emerging hydrogen fuel cell market.
While the push towards green energy and decarbonization is expected to boost demand for platinum in hydrogen-related technologies, it is also clear that this green energy space has been tremendously weak in 2024.
Additionally, platinum is used in jewelry, electronics, and as a catalyst in various chemical processes, further diversifying its demand base.
Investment demand and green energy transition
Platinum is increasingly seen as a strategic investment asset.
Compared to gold and silver, platinum has a smaller market and often exhibits more volatility.
The green energy transition is a significant factor to watch. The use of platinum in hydrogen fuel cells and electrolysis processes is expected to grow as countries push towards carbon neutrality.
This shift could provide tailwinds for platinum demand in the coming years but only once strength returns in the green energy sector.
More important for now are trends in platinum exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings.
As seen below, there is a very strong correlation between the price of platinum and platinum ounces held in ETFs, particularly since 2009. No surprise, in recent years total ounces held in ETFs are flat, similar to platinum’s price.
Platinum price correlation with the price of silver
Platinum and silver, while both considered precious metals, often exhibit different price dynamics.
However, there is a historical correlation between the two, particularly during precious metals bull markets. Silver’s dual role as an industrial metal and a store of value can influence platinum prices.
Silver and platinum started diverging in 2024, as seen below, after they were strongly correlated between 2012 and 2023.
Our suspicion is that silver will need to stage a strong bull run before platinum will be ‘FOMOed’, and restore the decade long correlation.
In 2025, if silver enters a strong bull market due to factors like inflation hedging, increased industrial demand, or speculative buying, platinum could benefit from a similar uptick in interest.
Monitoring the correlation between these two metals could offer valuable insights for investors considering platinum.
Platinum price charts
The secular platinum price chart has a long term triangle structure as seen on below chart.
The only positive attribute of this chart pattern is the higher highs in the last 2 years.
Until and unless $1,250 is cleared, there is no bull market in platinum.
The weekly platinum price chart with its 90 week moving average illustrates our point made above.
A platinum price prediction for 2025
Based on the factors discussed, we can outline several potential scenarios for platinum prices in 2025:
Sideways scenario
This is our expected platinum price prediction scenario. Platinum prices remain relatively stable, trading sideways. The market could see moderate growth in demand from green energy technologies. It will not be enough to cause a significant price surge. Probability: 45%.
Bullish scenario
Should the green energy space become attractive again from an investing perspective, platinum prices could rise to around $1,250 per ounce. This scenario assumes steady supply-side challenges. It also suggests a moderate increase in investment demand. Probability: 35%.
Very bullish scenario
In a highly optimistic case, a strong surge in demand could see platinum prices reaching $1,500 per ounce. Even in case the price of silver would rise strongly, which would be consistent with our silver forecast, we believe platinum will be lagging until 2026 or 2027. Probability: 10%.
Bearish scenario
Conversely, if demand growth weakens, platinum prices could drop below $800 per ounce. Probability: 10%.
Conclusion
Platinum’s price outlook for 2025 is shaped by a combination of supply constraints, growing demand from green energy sectors, investor sentiment, platinum ETF demand, and its correlation with silver.
The market presents several potential scenarios, ranging from sideways trading to a significant price rally or decline.
As always, investors should keep an eye on the evolving dynamics of the platinum market, especially its relationship with silver and its role in the green energy transition, to make informed investment decisions.
