UBS sees gold at $3,600 by March 2026 and $3,700 by mid 2026. ETF inflows and central banks strengthen demand.
Gold has outperformed major assets in 2025, with year to date gains near 28%. UBS now projects $3,600 per ounce by March 2026 and $3,700 by June and September 2026.
You can read our Full Gold Price Prediction Here: A Gold Price Prediction for 2025 2026 2027 – 2030
The bank cites persistent U.S. macro risks, questions around policy credibility, ongoing geopolitical tension, and a gradual shift away from the dollar in reserves. The main downside risk is a renewed rise in real yields.
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Why UBS Raised Its Targets
UBS links higher targets to fragile U.S. fiscal dynamics, the possibility of slower growth, and uncertain policy paths that keep demand for defensive assets elevated.
Its bullish call on gold also leans on the prospect of easier policy into 2026, which would lower real yields and support non-yielding assets.
UBS highlights de-dollarization at the margins and resilient investor interest. The house view maps to $3,600 by March 2026, stepping to $3,700 by mid 2026, with the risk case tied to stickier inflation and a stronger dollar.
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Flows, ETFs And Central Banks
Global gold ETF holdings rose by 23 tonnes in July to 3,639 tonnes, while AUM reached a month-end high near $386 billion. UBS lifted its 2025 ETF demand estimate to 600 tonnes and now sees total gold demand rising about 3% to 4,760 tonnes, the strongest since 2011.
Official sector buying remains substantial, at 244 tonnes in Q1 and 166 tonnes in Q2, taking H1 2025 net purchases to about 415 tonnes.
A 2025 WGC survey shows 95% of reserve managers expect global official gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months, and 43% plan to add to their own holdings.
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What Could Change The Path
A firm dollar, higher-for-longer real yields, or a stall in ETF inflows could cap prices. Faster policy easing, renewed geopolitical shocks, or continued official accumulation would support UBS’s roadmap.
Track real yields, DXY, monthly ETF net flows, and quarterly central-bank purchases as the highest-signal indicators.
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Conclusion
UBS’s $3,600 to $3,700 for gold path rests on identifiable pillars, policy and flows. If real yields ease and investment demand holds, the targets look attainable through mid 2026.
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