Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, Tariff Shocks & Gold’s Technical Outlook

Gold faces pivotal moves this week as Fed minutes and the July 9 tariff deadline threaten to disrupt current technical support.

Gold enters this week a little fragile, having pulled back roughly 5% from its April peak near $3,500 per ounce. HSBC’s view that momentum is “fading” exposes a need for fresh catalysts. 

Two key events—this week’s release of the June Federal Reserve minutes and the looming July 9 tariff deadline—are set to steer gold’s next move around the $3,300 mark 

Federal Reserve Minutes: Dovish Cues or Delay Realities?

The Fed minutes are expected to elaborate on policy projections and inflation trends. Markets are speculating more on a September rate cut, not July, with futures pricing in only two quarter-point reductions by year-end. 

Powell has emphasized a “wait-and-see” approach, particularly concerning tariffs’ impact on prices. 

Key technical watchpoints: gold trading just below its 50‑day simple moving average at $3,311. A decisive break below could expose a slide toward $3,300 or even $3,248, while a dovish surprise might reenergize bulls.

Tariff Deadline & Trade Risk: Safe‑Haven or Relief Trades?

Uncertainty around the July 9 deadline for Trump’s 90‑day tariff reprieve is a key driver. As of July 1, spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,322.55 amid fears tariffs (10–50%) may be reinstated. 

Conversely, fresh trade deals or an extension lifted gold to $3,311 on July 7, showing market sensitivity to Washington’s signals. 

This means tariff developments in the coming days could be the wildcard—sparking either a safe-haven rally above $3,336 or a slide if a settlement is reached.

Technical Wrap & Key Levels For Gold

Gold remains tightly ranged between significant moving averages, with the RSI weakening, signaling consolidation. Expect resistance near $3,350–$3,360, and crucial support zones at $3,300 and $3,248 if bearish momentum resumes.

Gold Conclusion

Gold’s path this week hinges on two factors: whether the Fed minutes flag persistent inflation risks or tariff pressures, and how the July 9 trade deadline resolves. 

Those will likely determine if gold breaks higher above $3,360 or slips toward the $3,300 basin. So,  if you are looking to invest in gold, keep eyes on catalysts—and the charts—for a clearer signal.

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