Solana’s meteoric rise to close out 2023 (91% gain over the past month) has left crypto enthusiasts pondering whether SOL can flip ETH as the second most-popular token.
We’ve recently shared our thoughts on a Solana prediction for 2030 (hint: it’s bullish), and also noted that analysts are predicting an uptrend for SOL in 2024.
Now, we’re going to need to zoom out a little to a ‘35,000-foot view’ to see whether these short-term trends could lead to long-term implications.
One thing we should note is that sentiment in crypto changes rapidly.
It feels great to see a 90% gain over the span of a month — but it hurts to then see your favorite token decline 10% the following day.
Will Solana Flip Ethereum?
Let’s get some other opinions here as we pull out our crystal ball.
Julian Deschler, the Co-Founder of Elusiv, a Solana-based Web3 encryption layer, shed some insights on the topic.
Granted, we do want to point out that he chose Solana for his project, an implicit bias toward the chain.
In a recent interview, Deschler first addressed why Solana had a breakout year in 2023.
He cited insanely high network speeds and increased dev activity as two primary reasons for picking SOL.
It’s no surprise that he alluded to high gas fees on ETH being a deterrent to devs and investors alike.
He also shared his belief that Solana’s growth isn’t limited to the short term.
We agree on that point for the future, but let’s cast some doubt on SOL flipping ETH anytime soon.
Market Cap Says Otherwise
As we can see from the drastic difference in market cap, SOL has significant ground to gain.
That’s not to say it couldn’t happen in the next decade, but with institutional adoption coming soon (May?) via an ETH-spot ETF, it looks like the gap could grow wider.
We’ve been bull tweeting the $BTC etf since 25-28k
Soon, we get to do this all again with the $ETH ETF in 2024
No matter what you believe, it’s all game theory. as the date approaches people will be less willing to sell, and others will feel the need to buy
$2,7xx and 3.4k… https://t.co/a1yufMX6l7 pic.twitter.com/bbO3EQIkNx
— Pentoshi 🐧 euroPeng 🇪🇺 (@Pentosh1) December 23, 2023
In the short term, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Solana trade sideways for a bit, and see some reallocation go towards ETH in 2024.
Solana vs. ETH NFTs
As the crypto winter starts to thaw — price action has slowly warmed up for NFTs.
The ETH vs. SOL battle rages on in the digital art world, with Ethereum leading the way.
While Solana offers digital collectors and creators higher speeds and lower fees, the big money projects still live on ETH.
Now, if you asked us whether I’d rather own a Picasso painting or a Crypto Punk (ETH chain), we’d take the Picasso.
But if you ask us again tomorrow — we might opt for NFT history and side with a crypto punk.
Our point being, things are changing so quickly in the world of blockchain.
Massive upswings followed by violent downswings have become commonplace.
This is why our conviction needs to remain high in all market conditions — even when you see the massive declines in price over the general NFT marketplace.
This is to say that while SOL might be crowned ‘crypto king’ of 2023 — it wouldn’t surprise us to see ETH outperform it in 2024.
See related: Our ETH prediction for 2024
Summary
We do not believe Solana will flip ETH in the next five-to-ten years.
However, as blockchain enthusiasts/analysts, we are pleased to see each token competing and making the other stronger as a byproduct.
We remain bullish on each SOL and ETH, but see ETH as being a more complete chain (except for those pesky gas fees) in the longer term.
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor prior to making any investments.
For more detailed research and top crypto picks, we recommend to follow our premium crypto charting alerts in which we share much more details across 35 tokens (including SOL and ETH), with timely insights combined with buy alerts.
