Silver industrial demand hit a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024, and the market posted a 148.9 million ounce deficit. ETF flows and inventory shifts now hold the key to whether silver’s price growth holds or rolls back.
Silver trades around $47.00 per ounce and has rallied roughly 50% year to date, putting it among the top-performing precious metals.
That sharp rise prompts a basic question; does this reflect a lasting supply-demand shift or a short-term speculative spike?
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Silver Industrial Demand And The Supply Gap
Global industrial demand hit a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024, and the market logged a structural deficit of 148.9 million ounces, according to the World Silver Survey. The solar sector represents about 17% of total silver consumption as PV production expands.
More than 70% of silver production comes as a byproduct of base metal mining, which limits how quickly higher prices raise primary mine output. That structure makes supply relatively inelastic while demand rises, leaving inventories and ETF holdings as the main buffers.
Recycling provided some relief in 2024, rising to a multi-year high, but it did not eliminate the shortfall.
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Signals To Watch: ETFs, Inventories, And Mine Output
Investor flows will likely amplify moves. The iShares Silver Trust holds roughly 499 million ounces and lists about 15,521 tonnes in trust, with net assets about $23.4 billion and strong YTD returns.
Keep tabs on ETF holdings and premium or discount levels, because shifts there can move prices quickly. Also monitor registered COMEX stocks and London vault inventories, since visible stock declines tighten the market and rebounds relieve pressure.
Finally, follow Silver mining output trends and recycling reports, because a clear ramp in primary output or a surge in recycling would ease pressure, while flat supply and continued inflows would support higher prices.
Dealer premiums and physical coin demand offer additional clues on retail appetite and can foreshadow broader shifts in price momentum. Pay attention to sudden ETF outflows, which can reverse rallies quickly if investors exit together.
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Conclusion
The data point to a supply-demand squeeze, but the Silver price rally can reverse if ETF flows shift or inventories recover. Watch ETF flows, visible stocks, and mine output for the next directional signal.
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