Almost 3 months ago we published Ethereum Now At A Giant Breakout Level. Our Ethereum (ETH) price forecast was 270 USD at a time it was trading 174 USD. A few weeks ago Ethereum peaked at 375 USD after which it retraced to 308 USD. Our Ethereum price target got crushed. Our followers ask the question which price target we see next, especially in 2019. With fundamentals in the crypto market super strong as per our 5 Cryptocurrency Predictions as well as our (still valid) bullish Bitcoin forecast and XRP forecast we believe Ethereum will have a great 2019 and 2020, but see a scenario with a potentially great entry point before doubling.
Let’s refresh our viewpoint from 3 months ago. This was the key message of our Ethereum article mentioned in the introduction:
Interestingly, the price of Ethereum suggests a giant breakout in the making. Ethereum arrived at the intersection of the falling channel and the rounding bottom. One long term chart set up is crucially important, but the intersection of two crucial chart setups has an exponentially higher value!
We continued with this sentence: any breakout above 180 USD for 3 consecutive days will send Ethereum to 270 USD later this year.
We certainly did not expect our price target to be achieved just some 2 months later. Ethereum is behaving in a much more bullish fashion than we expected.
Still, we are not convinced this is speculative price action vs. driven by real adoption. We doubt adoption is so strong on Ethereum’s blockchain. We somehow believe there is primarily speculation driven price behavior.
Be that as it may what we care about is the question “what’s next for Ethereum”.
In order to solve this question we do recommend to be selective with the source: whether it is a good time to invest in Ethereum may be a hot topic on social q&a sites, weblogs and social media, but it certainly requires decent charting skills and fundamental knowledge to answer this question.
Solely based on the chart we see two potential price targets for Ethereum:
- Bullish price target: 510 USD.
- Bearish price target: 220 USD.
So which of the two to prepare for (mentally)?
The one and only thing that matters is whether the current trend which is represented by the rising channel on the daily chart remains valid. If and when this rising channel breaks down we expect a fast move to the 220 USD level.
What if the breakdown never happens? Not very likely we would say. Ethereum went up 3-fold in 2019. As this is the first stage of the new crypto bull market we expect a healthy correction to take place in the next few weeks or months.
Regardless whether a fall to 220 USD will happen we believe that a rise to 510 USD will happen, if not in 2019 then likely in 2020 or 2021.
So our best guess forecast right now, though with a lower confidence level than the one we made 3 months ago, is that both price targets will be achieved: first 220 USD later this year, followed by 510 USD somewhere in the next 12 to 18 months.
