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A Ripple Price Forecast For 2019

Ripple is our top favorite crypto company, that is not a secret. How high can the price of Ripple’s cryptocurrency, the XRP token, rise? In a discovery-alike fashion we come to the answer in this Ripple price forecast 2019. In sum, we are convinced XRP token will move to $20. Our base case Ripple price forecast for 2019 is $20.

The price of Ripple’s XRP token (Ripple’s cryptocurrency) broke out from its 8 month downtrend this week. We are convinced this is the end of Ripple’s XRP bear market which is why we wrote Ripple welcomes new bull market earlier this week. We are also convinced this the right time to do our Ripple XRP price forecast for 2019.

There is so much to say about Ripple, but it can all be summarized with this one sentence. Ripple is the blockchain or crypto company with the highest potential in the world. That’s a big statement, and we are convinced of what we are saying for reasons laid out in this article.

Note that the type of detailed insights from this Ripple XRP price forecast is normally reserved for our premium subscribers of our premium blockchain & crypto investing research service. It is really exceptional that we publicly release this type of exclusive research insights.

Ripple XRP price low until recently, is any excitement justified?

With so much content living on the internet, and so many charts with short term focus, it is really easy to get lost. Losing the big picture is one of the most important pitfalls: the very short term focused attention span. Doing a Ripple (XRP) price forecast for 2019 or beyond requires taking a step back and focusing on the big picture.

When we read headlines like this one (on CNBC this week) XRP rose 80 percent Friday after struggling as one of the worst performing top cryptocurrencies this year it really does not help crypto investors that are struggling with the kind of volatility they have never seen before.

As said many times before “less is more”. This applies especially in the crypto space where trading less will result in significantly higher profits. However, the vast majority of crypto investors tend to get shaken out of their positions because they tend to get too emotional resulting in transacting way too often.

What really is misleading in the above headline is the “worst performing top cryptocurrency” keyphrase. While this is not incorrect considering the last 8 months it certainly is useless and horribly wrong in the bigger scheme of things!

Want to see why? Check out Ripple’s long term XRP price chart. Scroll down to the bottom of this article. You got our point, right?

As per XRP’s quarterly market report the price of XRP declined in a similar fashion and at a similar pace as the whole crypto market which can be seen on this chart.

In other words, the crypto market is cyclical in nature, and during a downtrend any cryptocurrency will fall victim of falling prices. Ripple’s XRP token is no exception to this.

Ripple price forecast (XRP) based on lean startup principles

Many crypto investors started doubting the potential of Ripple’s XRP, not only because of falling prices (as discussed above) but also because an increasing number of lawsuits against Ripple. What made things worse is this type of “research” that forecasted XRP’s price to fall to $0.01.

How can anyone be serious about such a Ripple price forecast (XRP)? The method they used for their forecast may be legitimate and well thought through, but if the output is nonsense then you have to revise your framework. The fact that Ripple is the most mature and most advanced crypto company in the world can simply not be neglected, if you ignore this (as the above mentioned research did) you are doing something seriously wrong.

We are no crypto perma bulls, certainly no Ripple perma bulls. We are factual and as unbiased as possible investors that have learned the hard way over time. Yes, we can look at facts, further than just charts and article headlines. That’s what we will prove with this XRP Ripple price forecast for 2019, so keep on reading, it will only get more interesting.

As per Tsaklanos in his 1/99 Investing Principles it is only 1% of news that matters to investors. The rest is noise and even dangerous for your portfolio and mental / emotional health. In other words, 99% of news will damage your wealth and health!

Anyone understanding lean startup principles, how companies grow and become successful, combined with technology and its adoption will see lots of relevant news about Ripple. It really is not only this news that came out early this week that is relevant: Ripple about to launch xRapid. If you search the web today everyone talks about xRapid being the reason for Ripple’s price explosion. However, there is more, much more, that preceded this.

We will look at many of these very relevant news items about Ripple in the next section, but it is clear that they all together point out the following: Ripple has technology with an amazing potential and a proven track record forecasting they will be able to leverage their technology. They solve a real life problem, and are proving in their customer discovery phase that they will be able to scale. No other blockchain or crypto company today is this far advanced. This of course is crucial input for our XRP Ripple price forecast for 2019 and beyond.

Ripple price forecast for 2019 (XRP) vs. untapped crypto potential

Anyone talking about Ripple’s clients and Ripple’s technology usage mostly refers to RippleNet. This is a bank-to-bank settlement service with a unique characteristic that its cross border payments are instant (as opposed to 3 to 4 days) and ultra low cost. As per Ripple’s insights corner:

RippleNet is active in over 40 countries across six continents. New payment corridors have opened up in North America, Asia, Africa, Europe and South America. This provides new access to better international payment services in markets where remitters and SMEs are in the most need. What’s more, RippleNet’s newest corridors have a combined potential market that totals over $2 Billion in inflows over the last year.

This is impressive. Although it is a short quote there is plenty of data that suggests how quickly Ripple is growing, and how much potential they have to be profitable.

Just to illustrate the number and type of clients that Ripple currently has (from Wikipedia):

ripple partnerships vs ripple price forecast

The other product of Ripple is xRapid which will actively use Ripple’s XRP token. This is a more generic settlement service that any payment service provider or payment processing provider can leverage, in settling a payment to any receiver, in the same country or abroad.

The potential of xRapid can be illustrated by this recent announcement of the partnership between Fleetcor and Ripple. Fleetcor, a $19 billion payment services firm in the US, announced earlier this year they are piloting with Ripple’s xRapid software. Fleetcor processes many billions of dollars annually, and help many thousands of business clients make international payments to suppliers and employees.

The potential of the remittance payments markets is huge. Remittances are big business today. The total global payments are close to $600 billion annually. The fees associated with these payments total nearly $30 billion per year. Yet, the majority of them are small, according to the World Bank, averaging about $500 each, according to this source.

We believe this visualization helps with understanding the potential:

When it comes to xRapid it difficult to find official data on how many companies are experimenting with this solution. The reason why this is important information is because it could give us a pointer on the potential once xRapid goes to production (it is currently in beta as a proof of concept with a small group of partners/clients).

One site, however, provides information on Ripple’s current client base: rppl.info. Although it is quite hard to verify the source and legitimacy of the info it seems to be in line with the info that Ripple provides on their site (in general). Pay special attention to the column ‘testing xRapid‘. This list is already impressive, which suggests to us that we can easily expect a very successful and fast growing xRapid product.

There is even more potential. Ripple is also working on its Xpring solution.

At Ripple, we will continue to use XRP to make it perfect for entrepreneurs looking to solve problems across identity, trade finance, gaming and virtual goods, provenance, real estate, insurance, digital media and many other industries. Xpring’s entrepreneurs and companies will leverage XRP for use cases like these, among others.

There is a huge potential, and the red line throughout all these factual data points is that Ripple knows how to create value. That’s what sets future successful companies apart from the 90% of startups that fail miserably!

It is fair to say that Ripple is a company that is brilliant in solving real life problems.

Moreover, more generally, a number of the largest firms in finance made a series of announcements about moving into the space:

  • Goldman Sachs announced plans to start a digital asset trading desk.
  • JP Morgan named a head of “crypto-asset strategy.”
  • Nasdaq’s CEO Adena Friedman said it would consider becoming a crypto exchange.
  • Fidelity said it was building a digital asset exchange.
  • Nomura became the first bank to offer custody services for digital assets.

This suggests the huge untapped potential in the crypto market, and, similarly, the potential for Ripple.

Why our Ripple price forecast for 2019 (XRP) is ultra-bullish

Given everything discussed so far in this Ripple price forecast 2019 (XRP) article we believe there is one underlying dynamic, combined with 3 catalysts, which justify a super-bullish outlook.

Shout out to Chris Smith on Medium.com who published this picture which is exactly what we were looking for: network effects! Mind the difference between the ‘right path’ (black lines) vs. the pitfall (green lines).

The point about network effects is that they build up slowly, but accelerate very fast in a very short period of time.

Any similarity with Ripple’s growth path? All the data points discussed so far perfectly fit in phase one (before acceleration), in general. Per solution, however, it seems that Ripplenet is in the acceleration phase and xRapid still in early stages (Xpring as well).

What plays a critical role here is that Ripple probably is not short on capital. This sets Ripple apart from almost any other startup. The millions of XRP tokens they created themselves probably will help to fund their growth. They also have funding from companies like Google. Our interpretation is that they are not in a rush to generate revenue. If that’s correct it suggests they will not make the mistake of being on the green path on the chart above, most likely they will remain on the black line. Note: the black line is the right path to achieve network effects.

The network effect is one major underlying force at work but we see 3 more fundamental catalysts underpinning our super-bullish Ripple price forecast 2019.

  1. Convergence“: Ripple announced plans recently that their different technology solutions will converge over time into one stack. They also said the XRP token will play a functional role in there. This news went under the radar because it came out when the crypto markets was declining. However, it is this 1% of relevant news as per InvestingHaven’s 1/99 rules. This may not occur this year, but starting 2019 we will hear more about this.
  2. Institutional money will flow primarily into Ripple’s XRP token. Think of the Bakkt platform as well as the Nasdaq offering cryptocurrency investing to institutions. If you were an institution with millions of dollars to invest which cryptocurrency would you choose with a ‘low risk high reward’ perspective? In the first place: Ripple is the ONLY crypto company with so many respected clients. Would you put money into Bitcoin cash (what added value does it deliver)? Or in EOS (with typical Chinese nontransparency)? Tether (what are they doing) or Litecoin (its founder selling all its holdings last year)? The serious money will flow into Ripple’s XRP first, is our forecast, then Bitcoin and Ethereum and Stellar Lumens.
  3. Ripple has no futures to short sell. The big issue with Bitcoin is that its astronomical returns will be capped, going forward, because of Bitcoin futures. However, money will still flow into crypto assets that do not have short selling so they can aim for astronomical returns. We believe the XRP token is best positioned for this. In other words, futures will limit Bitcoin’s future potential, but will help XRP rise to levels nobody believes in today!

With this rich set of data points and insights we believe it is about time to do our Ripple price forecast for 2019 (XRP)!

Ripple price forecast for 2019: 20 USD XRP

We went back into our archives and found our analysis from a year ago in which we rightfully stated that XRP $0.26 was the most important price point. Like clockwork XRP hit the same $0.26 level end of August / early September this year where it bottomed. The breakout point from the previous bull run has now become support.

This confirms Ripple’s XRP new bull market. The chart below confirms it as well by the way.

As a base case forecast we see Ripple's XRP price rising to the top of its long term rising channel. This coincides with a price forecast of $20. We derived this based on fundamental and chart analysis combined. #XRP #Ripple Click To Tweet

The XRP long term chart shows a perfectly rising channel. Our forecast is that XRP will hit the top of this channel at least once more, maybe even twice, depending on how much of the above discussed potential is realized.

If, and that’s a big IF, all assumptions we made above materialize (institutional money flowing primarily to Ripple’s XRP token, Ripple’s tech solutions converging and using XRP, Ripple’s continued growth without chasing revenue to reach network effects) we see XRP hitting the higher side of this channel twice in the next few years.

As a base case forecast we see one touch to the upper side of Ripple’s long term rising XRP channel with a price forecast of $20. So we are confident that our Ripple price forecast of $20 XRP for 2019 will be hit, and consider this the base case scenario.

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ripple price forecast 2019

 

** January 6th, 2019: Updated Ripple XRP price chart as 2019 kicks off **

It was a rough ride at end of the previous year, for all global markets including cryptocurrencies.

That’s why it is worth revising the XRP price chart in this article which was originally written 3 months ago as part of our XRP price forecast 2019!

Below is up-to-date chart of Ripple’s XRP price. As 2019 kicks off XRP has also fallen through its long term rising channel. There are couple of evolution on this chart which make it still very bullish. First, it has held up strongly, and, as one of the few charts in the crypto space, has set a higher low at the end of last year. Second, it is trading above the highs of 2017, above a horizontal band which is a characteristic of XRP (similar to 2015 and 2016).

Ripple price chart Jan 2019

 
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