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A Silver Price Forecast For 2017

[Ed. note: this article was written in October last year, and was updated several times since then as seen in below updates]

Silver is breaking down, similar to gold and miners. That does not bode well for the price of silver in 2017. How deep could silver fall in 2017? That is the question we try to answer in this article.

Silver’s breakdown should not come as a surprise, as we warned our readers already two months ago that silver was on the verge of correcting, just weeks after the Brexit frenzy.

We do realize that we were a lonely voice, as evidenced by Bloomberg’s bullish silver article, Keith Neumeyer’s nine-bagger prediction for silver’s price, the expectation for a bullish silver price after the Brexit. The Daily Bell came out with a fundamental argumentation on why the price of silver must go higher. All that is fine, but serious investors should realize what it is: it’s media.

Media articles are not a solid basis for smart investments.

Our analysis revealed a red flag for silver when the grey metal hit this triple resistance point which is visible on its long term chart (see below). Let’s be honest: a triple resistance point is not a coincidence, and it should be taken very seriously.

Since then, silver’s 2016 rally has stalled, and, as a consequence, it resulted in a stiff correction this week. We believe this correction has more downside potential.

How low could silver fall in 2017? The answer is very simple: by examining silver’s chart, we can derive a first obvious target of $15, to be reached somewhere in the first months of 2017. In case that support area would be breached, we would say that the most bearish scenario would result in a $10 silver price.

We do not expect silver to fall as low as $10 in 2017, but don’t exclude it neither, for the same reasons outlined in our gold price 2017 forecast. The alternative bearish target would be $12, i.e. the 2007 and 2009 lows.

Short term, the $15 target is as good as a fact.

New update on our silver price forecast

*** Update on 26 December of 2016 *** 

We stick to our bearish silver price forecast for the first part of 2017.

Silver’s long term chart below shows a rising trend (green lines) and the recent falling trend (purple lines). When analyzing precious metals prices it is key to identify the trend channels. We look for price points where several important trends arrive at one specific price point. Price point (1) on the chart was important as it halted silver’s rise.

The next important price point is indicated with the number (2) on the chart. There is no support between the current price and price (2). If (2) does not hold, there is little in the way until $11.50 and $9. That is a stretched scenario though, but never say never in markets. We will re-evaluate our forecast once silver is near $14.50.

*** Update end of April 2017 *** 

After the rally which took silver from $15 to $19 in the first months of 2017, it seems that silver is now falling sharply again. In the second half of April, silver has fallen non-stop, and is trading again right above $16. It seems our silver price forecast for 2017 is as accurate as it can be. Our viewpoint has been that gold is leading the precious metals sector, no matter whether silver looks stronger. The point is that silver only leads once precious metals are in a strong bull or bear market, not in periods in-between.

Given that silver’s seasonality effect will kick in, as we explained on Marketwatch (MarketWatch Features InvestingHaven’s Silver Price Forecast), chances are very high that silver’s high for 2017 was set mid-April. Below chart shows how silver tends to peak in April, every year, except during the raging bull market in 2009 and 2010.

We remain firm that our bearish silver price forecast for 2017 will materialize. We also believe that will be a once-in-a-decade buy opportunity for silver.

*** Update early July 2017 *** 

It is a fact: silver prices are breaking down. In this detailed analysis Silver Price Crashing. What’s Next For Silver In 2017 we explain that readers should very closely watch the $14 to $15.50 area: above there, silver is neutral to bearish, below there it is strongly bearish.

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  • Valorie DuBois

    I’m rather new at all this, but have been following the silver charts for the past few months and it looks like your predictions are right. How do we use this low to our best advantage? Should we invest minimally when it drops and hold on to it? Or maybe take advantage of the fact that the stock market seems set to boom this coming year and just keep an eye on silver?

    • Joey Whitford

      I plan on keep buying and buying more and more and more as it drops. I am in for the long term it will rise sooner or later.

  • Steve Cefala

    Silver is a good deal right now. The US dollar is being overvalued and that is what has been hurting precious metals lately.

  • Silver Savior

    I have been buying a lot of 10 ounce silver bars lately right now I can get 2 bars for $350. That is over a pound of silver! Are you kidding me? I have no problem buying at this level but if it goes lower it just means I can get another bar thrown in for free basically.

    I have to buy up while I still can. It’s going to get exciting soon. Buy when the mainstream investors only want paper assets. The joke is on them.

    • John Garcia

      where is a safe place to purchase bars now? where are you getting them, I am in Florida – thanks foxfirewest@yahoo.com

      • Silver Savior

        -See your message I sent you in email-

      • Dan

        I have bought my silver from JMBullion and not disappointed with delivery. What do you think of Sunshine Silver?

        • David Gatewood

          I bought a lot of sunshine silver. When it hits $50, the buyers will not be concerned

      • Casey Jones

        i’ve purchased from apmex a number of times, 0 complaints!

    • Jesse James

      Can you send me link of a good place to buy silver?

      • Silver Savior

        There are many trusted sites but these are the ones I regularly buy from.

        Providentmetals.com
        Scottsdalemint.com
        Jmbullion.com
        Apmex.com

        Each sells the 10 ounce bars as well as coins.

        • P-Funk

          Monex is a good bet…. I believe it’s a better deal the what’s been mentioned

          • Silver Savior

            Yeah Monex has been around a long time and is well known. Have not dealt with them though. They seem to be more over the phone kind of sales.

      • M Klein

        Golden Eagle Coins- Laurel,MD
        JM Bullion
        Apmex.com

        Just find sites that offer FREE SHIPPING on orders over 99$. But there is a small downside in buying grams or 1oz bars..Your gonna pay more over spot for smaller denominations then per say 50oz-100oz bars. It’s a tough thing to figure out,how much do I invest?? Nobody has it down pact but IMO with silver under 18.00 oz right now it’s a good buy no matter the spot price. Like I mentioned above it not like silver is gonna just stop being collected and used in EVERYTHING! It’s not dropping down to .75 cents a oz or anywhere near that price. Like the main article states and if his predictions let’s say come true,look at it as a bonus. If you let’s say buy 3000.00 in silver right now just under 18.00 an oz and silver takes a dive. And I mean dive like down to 11.00 an oz,you just buy more or what you purchased originally to knock your (loss) in half and so on. In the end your not gonna lose ALL your investment,I never say impossible in hard asset or stocks which go off need/want Supply+Demand etc. it’s just very VERY unlikely your gonna lose totally like for instance the Dow jones. See my point? Long haul and lower CSA (Cost share average) or Bullion average and eventually you’ll easily Even out and then have a fortune to balence ANY portfolio.

      • Casey Jones

        i’ve purchased from apmex many times, 0 complaints!

      • lovely jb

        Can you send me a link as well? Thanks!

      • David Gatewood

        APMEX

  • M Klein

    The problem is at 17.00 hover right now with the shakey stock market,mostly going up with news silver is bound to be volitle. Trump can whisper a name of a company good or bad and markets fluctuate. He is in total control of Wall Street like it or not. You can be happy for that if your a Trump fan,but if he happens to mention a favorite stock you hold in a negative light,you can lose your ass. I would say at the hover rate you can moderately buy silver. I wouldn’t invest all you money set aside in buying silver in one shot though,just find a company who has free shipping on bullion with sales over 99$. They are out there cause I’ve been looking. Golden Eagle coins in Laurel,Md and Jm bullion 2 sites I use on the regular. I’ve been buying just over the threashold on free shipping as silver goes down .20 here or small uptakes,if it jumps to much I hold out. I just let Trump speak and do a deal that causes market swings and buy (lock in) prices on the fall of bullion. If your in it for the long haul it shouldn’t matter,as long as your CBA (Cost Bullion Average) keeps low so your making money! No Bullion company is gonna get sick of seeing your name on orders coming through their computers buying 100oz bars to ship or buying just over that 99$ mark for free shipping. If Silver was 35-45-55 dollars a oz I’d be much more leery to invest in the metal,but below 20$? It’s a good buy honestly no matter the #s you choose. It’s not like it’s gonna drop down to 1.00 or become irrevelant and not needed or wanted. So if your thinking about making that leap,I’d say do it. If you lose anything it shouldn’t matter right? Just remember LONG HAUL! Keep stacking my friends!

  • Douglas Odom

    Idiots here. Wrong about everything and if they get 1 correct, they brag forever. They can not show any history of being correct.. They will be 30% off and tell you they got it right. Post otherwise. I am not a pro and will tell you gold WILL HIT 1300 or more this year. IDIOTS!

    • Michael Kush

      Close but not yet lol

  • Douglas Odom

    You are wrong on silver too. You are idiots.

  • Douglas Odom

    Being wrong all the time in history gives 0 credibility. Maybe after 10 years you can get lucky and say you nailed it. Biggest idiots I have ever seen in investment.

  • Your So FullofChit

    Yeah These Sites just want to sell U silver ! Because its going to 400 a ounce Maybe 300 years from now . Look back they be saying this same Chit for decades !!

    • Meeee

      This article is saying that silver will go down not up, did you even read past the first word?

  • disqus_1Op5S8jvui

    Taki, there is no sensible analysis which could be applied to one of the most manipulated and precious metals in the world. Seasonality sometimes works but silver is on top volatile in price because on to p it is a monetary metal too.

  • William

    Everything is fixed , computers from mr. Greenspan, they say don’t buy Silver that’s why every chance they get there buying physical as they sweep up the people’s stock market losses when they slam them down. They say we’re dogs? They took my job they feed us poison with GMO’S our water has fluoride in it not to mention chem trails, on and on and on! God is no respector of persons but to thoughs who do right. God help us for we know you are good. SELAH AMEN