Platinum has jumped this year, palladium has also risen. We look at whether those gains can hold.
Prices moved sharply in 2025, with platinum up roughly 40–55% YTD and briefly near $1,432.60 an ounce in late June, while palladium posted roughly 30–41% gains so far this year. These moves force a fresh look at supply, auto demand and market liquidity.
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Price Action And Technical Snapshot
Platinum delivered one of the strongest commodity performances in H1 2025, rising about 40% in H1 and in some reads up to 55% YTD, with an intraday high of $1,432.60 on June 26.
Palladium also gained, with reports citing roughly 30% to 41% YTD and tighter liquidity.
LBMA prints show platinum trading above $1,300 through late June. Key technical levels sit near $1,200 support and $1,400 resistance, while lease rates and warehouse stocks tightened the physical market. These moves flipped prior range highs into support.
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Fundamental Drivers Behind The Rally
Supply trends are largely behind the rally. Johnson Matthey forecasts a third consecutive year of primary supply decline and a material platinum deficit for 2025, while it sees palladium moving back toward balance.
Investment and jewellery demand rose as high gold prompted substitution into platinum, lifting physical demand and shrinking available stocks. Auto market substitution has increased platinum offtake where palladium supply stays tight.
Lease rates tightened and NYMEX warehouse stocks fell, creating a liquidity premium that lifted prices. WPIC projects a roughly 966 koz platinum shortfall for 2025.
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Risks, Near-Term Catalysts And What To Watch
Risks include a bounce in South African mine output, weaker Chinese industrial or jewellery imports, or a sudden return of palladium liquidity via trade flows, any of which could trim gains. Policy or trade moves such as the Sibanye tariff petition could add volatility. Traders should watch LBMA prints, Johnson Matthey updates, lease rates and autocatalyst loading trends for early signs of demand fatigue or relief.
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Conclusion
The PGM rally shows structural support, most clearly for platinum, but sustainability depends on persistent deficits, steady auto and Chinese demand, and limited geopolitical disruption.
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