Large ETF inflows tightened supply and lifted Bitcoin through major resistance. Support at $116k and derivatives positioning now guide the outlook.
Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $3.2–3.3B in net inflows last week, marking one of their largest weekly totals. This surge reduced available supply and helped price climb above key resistance levels.
The week ahead will depend on whether inflows continue at this pace and if charts confirm the breakout.
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ETF Flows: Pace, Concentration, And Impact
Last week’s net inflows reached about $3.2–3.3B, one of the strongest weekly totals since spot ETFs launched.
Most of this demand came from a few large issuers, which highlights how concentrated institutional buying has become. Charting cumulative flows across providers helps track whether this concentration continues or starts to broaden.
As long as inflows remain steady, buying pressure tends to support price strength. If flows slow for two consecutive weeks, the risk of a sharper pullback rises quickly.
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Price Structure: Key Levels And Liquidity Zones
Bitcoin recently surged through the $120k–$125k zone, turning it into a key reference for both support and resistance. Traders are now watching whether price can hold above $116k, which would confirm the breakout.
Using volume profiles and moving averages such as the 21-week and 50-week EMAs highlights where liquidity clusters are forming. A sustained close below $116k would weaken the current structure and increase the chance of a retracement into the $100k–$111k range.
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Exchange Flows And Derivatives Positioning
Exchange balances show if ETF demand is being met by money leaving exchanges or by fresh supply entering the market. A steady decline in exchange balances, combined with positive ETF inflows, usually reduces immediate selling pressure and supports price stability.
Derivatives data adds another layer of insight. Rising funding rates and high open interest often signal that long positions are getting crowded, which can leave the market vulnerable to sharp liquidations.
Options markets also help measure sentiment. An increase in put demand points to growing hedging activity, which can warn of caution building beneath the surface.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin ETF flows remain the strongest signal for the week ahead. If inflows stay consistent and Bitcoin holds above $116k, the structure favors continued strength toward higher levels.
If inflows ease while leverage builds in futures, the market could unwind quickly and pull back into the $100k–$111k range. Watching ETF flows, key support levels, and derivatives funding rates together gives the clearest guide for direction.
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