The question top mind of crypto investors is whether Bitcoin will go to $100,000. This question is not new, it has been relevant since Bitcoin was able to move to $20,000, it became even more relevant when it exceeded $60,000 Equally important is the question when exactly BTC can clear that price point. In other words, in our view, the most relevant question to ask whether Bitcoin will go to $100,000, and whether it will do so in 2024, 2025 or 2026? Our viewpoint is that Bitcoin will move to and exceed $100,000, presumably in 2025 but certainly not later than 2026.
In this article, we feature the long term Bitcoin chart that we consider the leading indicator to answer the question “Will Bitcoin go to $100,000 in 2024, 2025 or 2026?”
Editorial note: this article was originally published in August of 2023 but updated on November 11th, with up to date charts and commentary.
- Bitcoin’s primary trend bullish: $100,000 a realistic target
- Bitcoin needs Yields not to rise in order to be bullish
- Bitcoin’s Price Influencers
- Could Bitcoin Go To $100,000?
- Analyzing Bitcoin’s Historical Chart
- Could Bitcoin Go To $100,000 in 2025 or 2026?
- The Soaring Heights: Bitcoin beyond $100,000
Bitcoin’s primary trend bullish: $100,000 a realistic target
In recent weeks, we covered the upside potential of crypto markets in the following must-read articles.
One of the important questions we asked ourselves was how high Bitcoin can go in 2024. The short answer: “Our base forecast for Bitcoin in 2024 is $45,600 with a bullish forecast being $66,000. We expect Bitcoin to move to all-time highs in 2025.”
Moreover, with price action very recently confirming our bullish secular readings, we went one step further and asked the question whether crypto qualifies as the most epic investment opportunity of this decade. The short answer: “The crypto market is offering amazing entry opportunities currently. Arguably the best crypto investment opportunity of this decade is here.”
For readers that want to see deeper chart readings, making the point that Bitcoin and crypto may offer exciting opportunities in the coming 3 to 4 years, we wrote this must-read alert in our premium research service – Bitcoin’s Big Picture:
Bullish outcome: the Nasdaq is completing a correction, it will turn up in Nov/Dec. In that scenario, Bitcoin is frontrunning broad markets. We may expect a replay of winter 2020, but a soft version. We expect a few altcoins to fly high, we think of the ones we featured lately but essentially most of our favorites should do really well.
This quote was the conclusion of a crypto premium services alert, shared with members, mid-October. We followed up with Major Breakouts Happening In Crypto, most of the tokens we tipped mid-October are up between 40% and 100%.
Bitcoin needs Yields not to rise in order to be bullish
One important driver for Bitcoin’s unimaginable price trajectory in the previous decade was the low interest rate environment. Bitcoin did phenomenally well in the period in which rates were close to zero, a unique period in history. However, as soon as rates started rising, in 2022 & 2023, driven by tightening monetary policies, Bitcoin fell outside its 10-year channel as seen on the chart embedded in this article.
In other words, we have to take the secular trend in Yields into account, as we think about questions like “Will Bitcoin go to $100,000” and also “When will Bitcoin rise to $100,000 – in 2024, 2025 or 2026?”
In the following paragraphs, we look at the conditions to be in place for Bitcoin to rise to $100,000.
Bitcoin’s Price Influencers
The question of whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 hinges on a complex interplay of various factors.
- Rates. Rising rates are not favorable for Bitcoin’s price. However, after a fast series of rate hikes by central banks, the probability of a pause is very high. This should prevent Bitcoin from violating its recent lows, a critical pre-requisite for Bitcoin to eventually rise above 30k and start its journey to 100k.
- Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment plays a pivotal role in cryptocurrency markets. Positive news, regulatory clarity, and growing institutional interest can foster a bullish sentiment that propels prices higher. Conversely, negative developments can trigger sell-offs.
- Supply and Demand: Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins creates scarcity, a fundamental aspect that can impact its price. As more investors recognize its limited supply and potential as a store of value, demand may surge.
- Institutional Adoption: The involvement of institutional players, such as hedge funds, family offices, and publicly traded companies, can significantly influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Their entry into the market can result in increased demand and price appreciation.
Could Bitcoin Go To $100,000?
The question of timing is perhaps even more challenging to address than the question of whether Bitcoin will reach and exceed $100,000. Historical precedents indicate that Bitcoin’s bull runs often follow a halving event, which reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. The most recent halving occurred in 2020, suggesting that the following years, including 2024, 2025, or 2026, could witness heightened bullish sentiment.
Additionally, considering the historical trend of extended periods of consolidation followed by exponential surges, it’s plausible that one of these years could witness a price surge that propels Bitcoin beyond $100,000.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Historical Chart
The provided Bitcoin price chart spans a decade and is marked by intriguing patterns. One of the most dominant patterns is the long-term trend channel, which has historically defined Bitcoin’s price movements. This channel serves as a guideline for understanding price trends over extended periods.
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin deviated from its 10-year trend channel last November, staying below it for a considerable duration. This occurrence raises an essential point: the former average price rise, observed over a longer period, may not be sustainable, particularly in a swiftly rising interest rate environment.
Amid this scenario, attention shifts from the trend channel to a compelling horizontal structure that Bitcoin is gradually forming. Astute readers will identify the emergence of a W-reversal pattern, initiated by the price decline in May 2022. Should this pattern become the new dominant trend, the coming years could witness a higher low compared to the 2022 trough. Such a development would constitute a potent W pattern, potentially propelling Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high at $69,000.
Could Bitcoin Go To $100,000 in 2025 or 2026?
Predicting Bitcoin’s trajectory with precision is challenging, but the chart and patterns offer intriguing insights. The evolving W-reversal pattern suggests that Bitcoin is on a trajectory that demands time and patience. To complete this pattern, Bitcoin might require an additional 6 to 9 months.
This is what we wrote in August, in this same article:
Once this W pattern reaches fruition, a surge beyond the substantial resistance range of $31,400 to $39,400 becomes a plausible scenario. This surge, potentially in 2024, could lead to a test of the previous all-time high in the same year, followed by the establishment of a new all-time high in 2025.
Our target is almost hit, in November of 2023.
We add one more insight to the chart that was updated on November 11th, 2023:
One scenario that might occur is that Bitcoin rises to 45.6k USD, which is one of the obvious targets. It will likely do so in 2024. After hitting this level, a pullback might occur which will create an even stronger long term bullish reversal pattern. This scenario will easily push Bitcoin to $66,000 in 2025, if not higher, making it feasible to reach and exceed $100,000 in 2025 or 2026.
The Soaring Heights: Bitcoin beyond $100,000
The ultimate question remains: how high can Bitcoin ascend if it successfully adheres to the evolving W reversal structure? Preliminary estimates suggest that $100,000 is the baseline, a mark that Bitcoin seems destined to reach. However, this projection may be conservative. Some experts anticipate Bitcoin’s value to oscillate between $120,000 and $150,000 by 2025 or 2026, fueled by its resilience, evolving trends, and growing mainstream adoption.
While Bitcoin’s historical trajectories, interest rate environments, and market sentiment provide valuable guideposts, they also remind us that cryptocurrencies operate on their own unique rhythm, often defying conventional financial wisdom. The low-interest rate environment, which played a significant role in Bitcoin’s ascent, now contends with rising rates. The shifts in these economic fundamentals will inevitably cast their influence on Bitcoin’s path to $100,000, adding an additional layer of complexity.
In the end, we believe our analysis provides valuable insights into potential pathways on if and when Bitcoin will go to $100,000. The short version is that we believe that the multi-year pattern on Bitcoin’s chart suggests that a W-reversal is in the making. We assume that rate increases are coming to an end in 2023. This implies that we assume the Fed will gradually lower rates in 2024, making it possible for Bitcoin to rise and clear its biggest resistance at 31.4k – 39.4k USD, completing and confirming the long term bullish pattern. In this scenario, which is pending validation by the market in 2024, we are convinced that Bitcoin will go to $100,000 in 2025 or 2026.
While we eagerly wait for Bitcoin to complete its long term W-reversal structure, we see great opportunities in a handful of cryptocurrencies. Our premium crypto investing members received a few tips, lately, one of them this a list of 3 tokens with tremendous long term upside potential which is available in the restricted area with this title: “Keep A Close Eye On These 3 Cryptocurrencies.” Get instant access to all our cryptocurrencies tips >>