While the price of Ethereum (ETH) is holding up relatively well lately, even after the initial market flash crash of August 5th, 2024, there is a more concerning development ongoing in Ethereum since the first week of August 2024: ETHBTC is experiencing a breakdown.
While the ETHBTC breakdown found good support, also it is not confirmed yet, it certainly should be watched closely in the short and medium term.
RELATED – Our current Ethereum prediction.
This is how ETHBTC situation should be understood, and tracked.
Ethereum price reality vs. desire
We are crypto enthusiasts.
More importantly, we are unbiased.
If anything, we do know that looking at the inappropriate data is not going to help in understanding price influencers.
Here is just one illustration – the following post creates the perception that the ETH price must go up.
The $ETH supply was created in 2024: $160 million.
The net inflow in $ETH ETF in the past 2 days: $150 million.
The demand is exceeding the supply.
I think Ethereum is super undervalued and ready for a big run if this inflow sustains. pic.twitter.com/KIpv7f1vNO
— Michaël van de Poppe August 7, 2024
While it is true that there is an expectation that demand for ETH will increase since the ETH ETF approval, it is not the only price driver. Far from it.
If it were the most important price influencer, then why would these type of situation occur:
Buying a huge amount of $ETH now
Everyone will call it luck in a year..
I buy at recession and a war pic.twitter.com/KJj4ZnyVaD
— Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 August 5, 2024
The one and only right answer is because crypto is a risk on + high momentum type of asset that requires the right market conditions to do well.
The above mentioned post, particularly the “I buy at recession and a war,” is true until it isn’t. If a really big market crash hits the world, all tokens are down 70 to 99% in value, somehow similar to 2018 and 2022, you won’t see those statements again.
Be careful what you are reading.
Similarly, be careful which charts you are picking.
#Ethereum cycle comparison: $ETH 2017-2021 vs #ETH 2021-2024 👀
Looks like we’re exactly where we should be 👌
Ignore the noise, stay focused! Markets will recover pic.twitter.com/z12Jx0QFJ5
— CryptoBullet August 6, 2024
This chart shown above, for instance, may be suggesting a completely irrelevant comparison between two completely different market cycles.
In fact, the above chart is ignoring the current market conditions, upcoming volatility windows, the position of ETH in crypto’s ecosystem.
As history rhymes but does not repeat, the more important question to ask is this – which token will do equally well in 2025 similar to the exponential growth that ETH experience back in 2017?
Ethereum price reality vs. desire
If anything, the ETHBTC is a concern, a serious concern, at this point in time.
ETHBTC should move quickly back above its 50% Fibonacci retracement level to be in a healthy state.
At this point in time, all of the above mentioned posts, charts, tweets, etc., are opinions that do not contribute in a meaningful way to accurate chart and market readings.
While we fundamentally believe that ETH drives amazing value in crypto’s ecosystem, we also acknowledge that the ETHBTC chart is not looking constructive until it moves back above 0.050.
Ethereum – the ‘chart events’ to watch
There is hope for ETH investors.
On the one hand, the ETHBTC chart above clearly exhibits that it found support at the falling trendline. We don’t want to see lower readings below this falling trendline.
On the other hand, ETHBTC did not breach the 50% Fibonacci level (0.050) for more than 3 consecutive weeks. So, a failed breakdown is still a possibility.
Fundamentally, ETH is amazing.
But crypto markets move based on narratives and trends.
Old trends do not repeat. Look at AI tokens, they had an amazing run, it won’t happen again though. Similarly powerful trends in the past did not repeat.
While we believe that ETH is a great blue chip token for the long term, we don’t believe that ETH will deliver another 10x.
In our premium research service, we try to spot multi-baggers. We did find many of them, and we did alert members in time. Our best hit was 30x, as seen in our track record. We believe we see the next big trend unfolding, still very invisible for the average investor:
Published on August 1st, 2024, and available in our research area upon logging in: Dominant Dynamics In Crypto Markets. Also, Prepare For Buy The Dip Opportunities In These Tokens.
We invite readers to join us on our journey to find the next 10-baggers for 2025 to complement blue chip tokens like ETH.
