It is getting very interesting in the crypto space. Not only because of peak panic levels, not seen in a long time, but also because of the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. Last year our prediction was for Bitcoin to rise north of 20k. Bitcoin came close to that prediction acknowledging that it started the year around 3k we were directionally absolutely right. For 2020 our Bitcoin price forecast will also contain an alternative prediction. That’s why we will be less focused on a specific price target as part of our Bitcoin price forecast for 2020. We want to focus more on the direction as well as the outcomes. We continue to strongly believe in a long term bullish outcome of Bitcoin and crypto, but there might be a mild rise before the acceleration phase. Note that our cryptocurrency predictions are the last additions to our annual market forecasts, especially our 2020 forecasts.
[Corona Crash Update posted on March 20th 2020. Please scroll to the bottom to find the most up-to-date Bitcoin price chart as well as insights to our forecasts after the Black Thursday and Black Monday crashes in March of 2020.]
In sum what we we continue to believe is a directionally bullish Bitcoin price forecast for 2020. This means there will be a bullish bias but there may be times of wild gyrations and breakout risks. The secular bull market overall will continue but it may need additional time in 2020 to set the foundation before trending strongly higher.
This view is the opposite of the end of Bitcoin and death of crypto ‘saga’ which is what many try to make you believe. We are 99% convinced this is an irrelevant statement.
The Big Picture Of Our Bitcoin forecast 2020
We see way to often investors focus on the very short term news, trends, charts. This is a very bad habit, and sets the stage for wrong investing decisions. Crypto is a major rollercoaster, if you add short term moves and news to the mix (like in this case) you are on the right path to (rightfully so) reach the highest level of confusion.
Analysis should happen on 3 timeframes: short term, medium term, long term.
That’s why we start our Bitcoin price forecast for 2020 with the longest timeframe: the weekly chart over 9 years.
Always start with the big picture, and always remember to move up to the highest timeframe so you interpret the short term news and charts in the right context.
Again, it’s one of the biggest mistakes we see among investors.
The long term Bitcoin chart has these 2 powerful bull markets which clearly were extremely profitable for those that were able to stay on board.
Let’s make this point clear: not many were able to hold on the volatility over the long run, and many sold (we know this first hand) to leave huge profits on the table.
What is more relevant though is how to use this insight as well as what is going to happen going forward.
The long term chart suggests that the pace of the ongoing bull market #3 might slow down compared to the previous bull market #2. Note the emphasis on the word ‘might’. It is not a given, but it might happen, and we should mentally be prepared for this.
Does it mean crypto investors have to sell everything? No, on the contrary, long term holdings are still 100% justified (provided it is the ‘right’ value add cryptocurrency investors are holding). But we might move some of our capital into medium term trades. We explained this strategy in great detail to our premium crypto subscribers, and it wil be THE main theme of the coming months.
Based on how Bitcoin will behave around current price levels we might need to adapt our investing strategy: from buy-and-hold to a combination of holding for the long term with medium term trades. How, how much, when … all these questions are what we solve in our premium cryptocurrency investing service. We guide our members in a way not anyone else is doing.
As part of our Bitcoin price forecast for 2020, based on the long term chart below, we would say that Bitcoin needs additional time before moving to a state of accelerated rise. That’s in our opinion the message of this chart.
Let’s not forget this one crucially important and fundamental insight from this chart: the grand secular Bitcoin bull market is still in place, and not going anywhere in the foreseeable future. Similarly, the grand crypto bull market is still intact, in 2020 and beyond.
We Do Not Forecast The End Of Bitcoin Nor The End Of Crypto
It is pretty tough to stomach all those doom and gloom forecasts. Interestingly this only happens when prices go south.
Jamie Dimon’s infamous 2017 bitcoin takedown still serves as a warning as the decade winds down (CNBC)
Bitcoin Price Bear Gloats: ‘BTC Down 65%’ ‘Total Crypto Apocalypse!’ (CCN)
As Bitcoin Suddenly Bounces, A New Central Bank Crypto Rival Could End ‘Evil’ Bitcoin (Forbes)
Did anyone see this type of articles appear in May and June of 2019, when Bitcoin was going through the roof?
No, and this is the moral of the story: news follows prices. News is a lagging indicator. Don’t follow news, follow trends and trend changes.
If anything cryptocurrencies are only at the start of a large scaled adoption. However, it is only a handful of cryptocurrencies that will prove their value.
Bitcoin has no functional value add but is the ‘face’ of the crypto market. It’s the leading indicator. And it is inextricably linked to the rest of crypto.
We forecast a continuation of growth of cryptocurrencies, we forecast good outcomes for Bitcoin and its long term investors.
Bitcoin price forecast for 2020: 2 Must-See Charts
We strongly believe in the ‘less is more’ principle when it comes to crypto investing.
Trade less, but enjoy more profits on the long run.
Less charts, but a clearer picture.
As part of our Bitcoin price forecast for 2020 we believe there are just 2 charts to understand what will be happening in 2020.
The highest probability outcome is the one we see on the first chart below. Bitcoin’s crypto bull market that started on April 2nd, 2019 will simply continue, regardless of its pace. It might go up and down but it will continue to in its uptrend, the one started on April 2nd.
That’s exactly what we see on below chart.
However, in case the uptrend shown below is ‘violated’ there is an alternative path.
Given the very long term chart and its trends shown earlier we might see a slower rise of this crypto bull market #3 compared to the previous ones.
If this is about to materialize in 2020 then we might see a ‘boxed 2020’ or in more technical terms a ‘consolidation’. We did indicate this with the purple box on the chart below.
There is nothing wrong with Bitcoin taking some time to set a foundation before moving higher. If 2020 would be a transition year, or a consolidation year, it might move in the 6k to 10k range (in approximate terms). The trendline and associated rising channel will have directionally the form we annotated with the dotted lines.
Corona Crash Update on March 22nd, 2020
This paragraph and below chart the up-to-date version of the long term BTC price chart. We wrote this update on March 22nd, 2020, at the depth of the Corona crash.
We see this big red candle in March of 2020 on the long term BTC chart. The one and only way to assess the damage that is created in the crypto market with the recent sell off is by thoroughly analyzing the longest timeframe: the monthly chart.
This is the 7 year chart, one of the many crypto charts featured in our crypto premium service.
BTC got back into the tactical bear market that started in July of 2019. That’s not a secular bear market, but a tactical bear market in the context of a long term bull market that started on April 2nd, 2019.
Presumably the real impact created by the recent BTC crash is a slower rising uptrend in Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. We call it the ‘forked’ channel: there is a lower channel visible on the BTC chart.
The ‘good news’ is that BTC stopped falling right at the breakout point of April 2nd, 2019. That’s the red horizontal line on the chart. As long as this level holds BTC and cryptocurrencies are technically in a bull market.
What crypto bulls absolutely want to see is this new forked channel is respected. BTC should rise in this new channel to be on the safe side.
At InvestingHaven we followed up with our members with almost daily updates during the crash. We also give guidance on short term and long term positions, with clear entry/exit signals for short term momentum plays.
Conclusions
As part of our Bitcoin price forecast for 2020 we outlined 2 scenarios with are directionally identical: the grand secular bull market will continue is what unites them, but the upward potential in 2020 is what differentiates them.
In the most likely scenario Bitcoin goes simply higher, and we will see a major breakout to all-time highs in the 2nd half of 2020.
In the alternative scenario Bitcoin will consolidate in a wider range in 2020 which would set the stage to continue its grand bull market in 2021 and beyond.
In our premium crypto investing service we follow these scenarios very closely. We guide crypto investors through volatile periods (we can tell you that were flooded with emails during the November/December correction and we did everything we could to guide our members in a way no other service does). But we also alert them on potential trend changes, and how to strategically approach them. We do not trade in the short term, we do not short crypto markets, we do not sell anything. We have a serious crypto investing service, not a short term oriented trading service. If you are interested you can feel free to join us >>
