We consider our annual gold price forecast one of those important forecasts because of our track record in forecasting gold prices. It is clear that both gold and silver started a new bull market back in 2019. One important dynamic in bull markets is that it starts slowly and picks up speed over time. While the gold bull market is already for +2 years in progress (at the time of writing, a few months before 2022 kicks off) we believe there is more upside potential. We predict gold’s price could rise to $2,500 area in 2022. Our 2022 forecast is strongly bullish but we need the USD to first run its course before gold can accelerate. We believe gold will accelerate mid-2022.
InvestingHaven’s research team publishes for many years in a row its annual market forecasts. These gold and silver forecasts have been read by millions of investors over the years.
Our 2022 gold price forecast comes at a very interesting time. At the time of writing the USD being one of the leading indicators for the price of gold has been dominating precious metals prices. It did ‘suppress’ them throughout most of 2021, more than at any point in time in recent years. Lately, however, the USD has been rising together with precious metals.
In other words, if anything gold price predictions might become among the most challenging ones. So far, our track record between 2016 and 2020 was phenomenally accurate. We will be open minded and transparent with our premium members and readers as it relates to our performance, now and at any point in 2022.
We highly recommend to sign up to our free newsletter to follow our work and catch those gold rallies in 2022 and beyond.
The gold bull market that started almost 3 years ago
We are here to catch those major moves in gold, and our gold forecast should guide us with this.
We are on the lookout of markets that become a multi bagger in 6 to 9 months time. It is our official mission, formalized as Mission 2026, and we even have a target for this: we want to turn $10k into $1M the latest in 2026 by having the best forecasts and associated trades.
That’s the reason why we spend so much time researching and writing our annual forecasts, first and foremost our annual gold price prediction.
This gold prediction suggests that a new bull market in gold and silver has started with the June 2019 breakout. We were on record with this public blog post forecasting that gold would start a bull market prior to it happening: Gold Enters New Bull Market Right Before Its 8th Bear Market Anniversary.
Three leading indicators for our gold price predictions
We apply a limited number of leading indicators for our gold price predictions:
- The Euro (inversely correlated to the USD).
- Bond yields.
- Inflation indicators.
All three combined help us forecast the future path of the price of gold. Moreover, it is by using these 3 indicators that we were able to accurately forecast annual gold price targets 6 to 9 months prior to the market hitting them.
Our gold price prediction for 2022
Based on the long term charts which show gold’s dominant patterns we expect this new bull market to continue for several years.
InvestingHaven’s research team strongly believes that gold’s dominant trend is a bullish trend after completing an 8-year rounding formation which started after hitting all-time highs in 2011. The first time former all-time highs were hit was in 2020. Consequently we expect a second attempt for gold to move above former ATH in 2022.
Bull markets accelerate slowly over time, only to accelerate as they mature. With that in mind we predicted several spikes prior to 2022 but the real breakout above gold’s former highs at $2,000 should be there no later than 2022. In fact, we expected this breakout to occur in 2021 but we were probably just a little too early with this gold prediction.
We expect an acceleration of the gold price bull run in 2022.
Gold charts that support our forecast
The power of the pattern.
Chart patterns have a lot of predictive information provided they have a reliable setup. A reliable pattern has a reliable outcome until proven otherwise.
If we look at the daily gold chart we can very clearly see a reliable reversal setup right below 2011 ATH. The grey box depicts the reversal we are referring to. That’s the viewpoint on the price axis of the chart.
On the timing axis of the chart we see that gold is about to complete this nice reversal at the end of this year. In other words it took gold the entire year 2021 to complete a reversal.
Pretty powerful combination. It certainly justifies much higher gold prices to come in the not too distant future. The chart pattern justifies our $2,500 gold price forecast for 2022.
The weekly chart puts the 12 month reversal below ATH into perspective. It comes after a 9 year reversal on the gold chart.
The combination of the daily and weekly chart patterns clearly make the point of much higher gold prices underway, it’s a matter of WHEN not IF.
If we take an even bigger picture view with the monthly gold chart we see how this 12 month reversal after a 9 year reversal both come after a huge 9 year uptrend.
We add the quarterly gold chart to the mix and we only get more confirmation of an orderly setup.
Oh, wait a second, 9 years up, 9 years reversal, now 1 year of a smaller reversal. This sounds like pretty structured. And it is, it’s a very structured chart pattern on all timeframes (quarterly, weekly, daily), even the longest timeframe (quarterly).
Yes, we strongly believe that our bullish gold forecast for 2021 is simply delayed with one year. It’s postponed to 2022. And this makes our 2022 gold forecast even more bullish than the one of 2021.
Gold’s leading indicator #1: Euro (USD)
Gold tends to go up when the Euro is in a bullish mindset. Consequently, when the USD is rising it puts pressure on gold.
The long term Euro chart suggests that the Euro is hitting support. The 110 level in the Euro index better holds. IF, and that’s a big IF, the Euro turns higher in 2022 AND respects 110 it will be supportive of higher gold prices in 2022. Our 2022 gold price forecast will get a confidence vote from the Euro.
Similarly, the USD (weekly chart shown below) is really bullish right before 2022 kicks in. That’s why we believe that gold can’t accelerate yet, it needs the USD to complete its bullish move and turn flat or lower. That’s when gold will break out from its 2011 ATH and accelerate its bull run.
The next chart shows the periods in time in which the otherwise positively correlated Euro and gold were diverging. It has been only a few times in 2 decades. The Euro is our #1 leading indicator for gold. The Euro cannot fall in order for gold to start and accelerate its bull run, that’s the conclusion.
Gold’s leading indicator #2: Bond yields
Bond yields are inversely correlated to gold. They are not as strong a leading indicator as the Euro. Gold can rise when bond yields are flat or range bound.
The weekly bond yields chart is now in a narrow range. Any fast move higher will push gold back. A slow rise or range bound setup can support rising gold prices.
Gold’s leading indicator #3: Inflation
Gold shines in an inflationary environment.
The inflation indicator of Martin Pring consists of energy and miners. So in a way it makes sense that it goes up in tandem with gold. Not the best inflation indicator, but more of a secondary one.
We like the monetary inflation indicator much more as that’s essentially what gold is: currency. Gold rises when there is monetary inflation.
Below is the monetary inflation (black) on the same chart as the gold price (yellow).
Visibly, gold is tracking the monetary rise. And the ‘money in the system’ has exploded with Corona induced stimulus by policy makers.
This one chart shows how the gold price perfectly tracks the M2 monetary growth. Gold has been lagging M2 in 2021. And this confirms the very first chart of this gold forecast: a bullish reversal that took 12 months to complete, and with this chart setup it is also a reversal below the M2 vs. gold gap.
Gold price forecast 2022: conclusion
It is clear that we have sufficient confirmation from the gold chart patterns on all timeframes as well as gold’s leading indicators that gold may go through a really bullish 2022:
- The daily gold chart has a 12 month reversal. For gold to be bullish in 2022 we must see a completion of this bullish reversal when 2022 kicks off.
- The weekly and monthly gold charts show a 9 year uptrend followed by a 9 year reversal. Very orderly, making our gold forecast and a gold breakout very reliable.
- The quarterly gold chart confirms the lower timeframes.
- The Euro must hold 110 points, and start rising in 2022 to lit a fire in the gold market.
- Bond yields should not rise too fast, they can rise but slowly to not push back gold.
- Gold is likely going to fill the gap with the monetary inflation (continued) rise.
Our #gold price forecast for 2022 is strongly bullish with a price of $2,500. We expect $GOLD to peak somewhere in the 2nd half of 2022 provided it clears $2,015 in the first half of 2022. Click To Tweet
Our track recording predicting the price of gold
For 5 years in a row our gold forecasts were phenomenally accurate. They are all still available in the public domain on our blog, and the table below depicts the summary of each year’s gold forecast with the highs/ lows per year.
Interestingly, InvestingHaven’s research team has been spot-on with its gold price forecasts for 5 consecutive years. However, our gold forecast 2021 of 2200-2400 USD did not materialize. After 5 consecutive years of spot-on gold forecasts we did miss in 2021.
Our forecast were highly accurate because we have a clear forecasting methodology. It is based leading indicators: TNX, USD, futures market (CoT report).
In 2021 the intermarket readings were absolutely accurate; they justified a gold bull run. Bond yields did fall close to 40% at a certain point while the USD was rather flat. There was no gold bull run while any other point in time in the past gold would have been rallying in those circumstances.
This suggests that either our method stopped working OR our forecast is postponed. Based on the charts and leading indicators of our gold 2022 prediction we believe it is the latter. Our 2021 gold forecast came just a little too early, consequently we believe our gold forecast will exceed our price targets in 2022.
Remember, the longer a consolidation goes on the more powerful the subsequent trend.
So we remain convinced that our gold price forecast of 2021 which was $2,200-$2,400 remains valid, however it is postponed (not invalidated). Our market readings suggest that gold will move higher but once the USD is done rising and when bond yields will be flat to mildly bullish in 2022 (maybe even when they will be falling).This is an overview of our gold price forecasts from last years. We publish these forecasts many months prior to the year that we forecast. Prices reflect gold's spot price.
|Year||Our gold forecast||Highs||Lows||Forecast accuracy|
|2016||Bearish with price testing 1,000||1,386||1,049||Accurate|
|2017||Bearish with price testing 1,000||1,358||1,123||Accurate|
|2018||Bearish with price testing 1,100||1,365||1,160||Spot-on|
|2019||Bullish with price target of $1,550||1,556||1,265||Spot-on|
|2020||Bullish with price target of $1,750||2,075||1,498||Highly accurate|
|2021||Bullish with price target of $2,200||1,921||1,675||Missed|
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