KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Goldman lifted its December-2026 gold target by $500 to $5,400, a 10% increase from its prior call.
- Spot gold trades around $4,887.82/oz, building on strong gains already recorded in early 2026.
- The forecast relies on roughly 60 tonnes of central-bank purchases in 2026 and mine supply growth of about 1%.
Goldman Sachs increased its end-2026 Gold forecast to $5,400 from $4,900 as buying stays strong and supply remains tight.
Spot gold trades around $4,822.82/oz after extending last year’s powerful rally.
Gold prices continue to reflect a market where demand grows faster than supply.
Goldman’s latest forecast assumes steady investment buying and continued central-bank accumulation, while global mine output expands only marginally.
This leaves little room for price pressure to ease over the next year.
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Why Goldman Turned More Bullish On Gold
Goldman expects private investors to remain active buyers through ETFs and direct holdings.
These flows have stayed firm even after sharp price gains.
Central banks also play a major role. The bank estimates official institutions will add about 60 tonnes of gold in 2026 as they continue to adjust reserve strategies.
At the same time, global mine production rises only about 1% per year, which limits how quickly supply can respond to higher prices.
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What Current Prices Are Signaling
Spot gold trades around $4,822/oz after climbing sharply in 2025 and extending gains this year.
The market shows frequent swings, yet buyers continue to step in on pullbacks.
That pattern suggests investors still see value in holding gold even at elevated levels.
What Could Hold Gold Below $5,400?
Goldman also outlines clear risks. Higher real interest rates could reduce demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
Faster-than-expected Fed tightening would have a similar effect.
Large ETF outflows would also weaken prices if investors reduce exposure all at once.
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Conclusion
Goldman’s $5,400 forecast shows there’s strong investment demand, steady central-bank buying, and slow supply growth.
With spot prices above $4,800/oz, the gap to the target shows how tight the gold market remains going into 2026.
Should You Invest $1,000 In Gold Now?
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