Gold topped $3,500 this week, signaling strong investor demand. Traders should watch yields, Fed cues, ETF flows and momentum.
Gold pushed above $3,500 per ounce this week, reaching all-time highs and rising roughly 34.5% year-to-date.
Heavy inflows to physically backed ETFs and sustained official purchases have tightened available metal, and market pricing for an expected Fed rate cut has lowered real yields, increasing demand for non-yielding bullion.
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Drivers: Why Gold Price Broke Out
Central bank purchases and ETF demand account for the bulk of the accumulation. The World Gold Council shows global physically backed ETFs recorded US$38bn of inflows in H1, and total Q2 demand reached 1,249 tonnes, with demand value at US$132bn.
Official buyers remain near record levels, extending the multi-year pattern of reserve diversification. Markets currently assign roughly a 70% probability to a September Fed rate cut, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold.
A softer dollar and elevated market volatility have encouraged allocations to bullion by institutional buyers and reserve managers.
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Levels, Gold Price Forecasts and Catalysts to Watch
Technically, $3,500 now acts as key support, while resistance clusters sit around $3,600 to $3,700 where prior selling appeared. JP Morgan models point to an average of $3,675/oz by Q4 2025 and potential prices above $4,000/oz by Q2 2026.
InvestingHaven’s Gold price forecasts correctly predicted that the metal would hit $3,500 in 2025. Our analysts also predict we could see gold touch $3,900 in 2026 and as high as $5, 155 by 2030.
In fact, a sustained break above $3,700 would clear a path toward $3,900 and $4,000, while a rise in real yields or a stronger dollar would likely force a pullback toward the $3,200–$3,400 zone.
Traders should track option-implied volatility, futures open interest, daily Gold ETF flows and official purchases, and watch Fed policy at the September 16–17 meeting and upcoming US CPI and payroll prints for confirmation.
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Conclusion
The new gold all-time high reflects concentrated investment demand and shifting policy expectations, which leave room for further gains. That outcome is conditional, and traders should treat $3,500 as a key stop or scaling level, assume event risk from the Fed, CPI and payrolls, and monitor ETF and official flows for confirmation. Otherwise, keep position sizes small during event windows and apply clear risk limits.
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