Falling real yields and heavy ETF buying pushed gold and silver to multi-year highs. Traders now watch real yields, ETF flows, the dollar, and options skew for short-term signals.
Gold climbed to record levels in 2025, hitting roughly $3,895 per ounce and rising about 47% year-to-date, while silver soared over 60% YTD.
These moves reflect a clear shift in where macro cash flows go as bond markets price faster Fed easing and real yields fall.
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The Numbers: Yields Down, Metals Up
Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded tens of billions of dollars of inflows in the first half of 2025, leaving total holdings at multi-year highs.
The SPDR Gold Trust alone pulled in roughly $12.9B so far in 2025, and it posted one of its largest single-day inflows on record.
Those fund flows supply durable buying that moved the market.
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Why Real Yields And The Dollar Matter
Real 10-year yields set the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals. Research that regress gold on the TIPS 10-year real yield shows a historical link: a 100 basis point rise in real yields corresponds to about an 18% drop in inflation-adjusted gold.
At the same time, a softer dollar and growing odds of Fed rate cuts have reduced bond yields and lifted precious metals.
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What To Watch As a Trader
Focus on four live indicators:
- TIPS-implied 10-year real yields and gold prices for trend direction.
- Weekly Gold ETF flows and GLD activity as a proxy for investor demand.
- The DXY dollar index for cross-currency pressure.
- Options skew and open interest for signs of speculative positioning that can amplify moves.
We recommend you use these together rather than singly to judge momentum and risk.
ALSO READ: Gold Eyes $4,000–$5,000: Momentum Fueled by Fed Outlook
Conclusion
2025’s yield moves changed the market regime. Treat gold and silver as macro-flow assets and monitor yields, flows, the dollar, and derivatives to time trades and manage risk.
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