Weak Ahead: Gold Rally Tests the $3,300–$3,500 Range Along Triangle Resistance

Gold trades near $3,379 on rate‑cut hopes after softer jobs data. It now moves inside a tightening triangle with signs of a breakout or stall.

Spot gold sits at $3,369 per ounce after a roughly 1.8 percent gain last session on the U.S. jobs miss that showed just 73,000 new positions added in July. Traders now price in an 81 percent chance of a Fed rate cut in September. 

The metal forms a symmetrical triangle between $3,300 support and $3,360–$3,372 resistance, setting the stage for a potential breakout or squeeze. The outlook now hinges on fresh U.S. data and policy signals.

Tightening Price Patterns: Triangle Near a Decisive Break

Gold has traded inside a narrowing triangle for weeks with lower highs pressed against $3,379 and higher lows near $3,300 support. A daily close above $3,380 could trigger upside momentum targeting $3,430 or more. If the price drops below $3,330, bulls may pull back toward $3,200. The gold triangle consolidation now signals a pivotal choice. Declining volume in recent days points to exhaustion inside the coil.

Macro Forces Boost Upside Targeting $3,500

Citi just lifted its 3‑month gold price forecast to $3,500, expanding its expected trading band to $3,300–$3,600, citing worsening U.S. growth, tariffs, and a weak dollar.

 Global gold demand rose 3 percent in Q2 to 1,248.8 tonnes, due to growing ETF inflows and central bank buying. Central bank gold buying now accounts for a third of total demand, reinforcing the structural case.

What to Watch This Week

You should watch U.S. CPI, PCE, and Powell commentary. Clear signals can tip the triangle one way. 

A breakout above resistance would reinforce the case for a Fed rate cut and gold rally toward $3,430–$3,500. If the price falters at $3,360, the metal may trade within the $3,300 trading range until fresh catalysts shift sentiment.

Conclusion 

Gold now sits at a potential turning point. You must watch whether it breaks gold breakout resistance above $3,372–$3,380. A confirmed move higher opens the path to $3,500. Failure could confine gold to the lower half of the triangle.

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