Gold trades at record highs after recent Fed easing signals and strong official buying. Watch real yields, ETF flows and central-bank purchases this week.
Spot gold sits around $3,700 per ounce after fresh record highs this month, as markets priced a faster path to Fed rate cuts.
Deutsche Bank now models an average $4,000/oz in 2026, while official buyers continue large net purchases. Real yields, ETF flows and central-bank activity can push gold price this week higher or trigger profit taking.
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Macro Drivers This Week
Watch three macro levers this week that will move bullion. First, the Fed has cut rates and signaled further reductions, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and weighs on the dollar.
Second, central banks remain heavy buyers, with official net purchases running well above the 2011–2021 average and surveys showing 95% expect reserves to rise.
Third, real Treasury yields can reverse quickly, so weekly ETF inflows and Swiss shipments are key short-term gauges.
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Technical Set-Up And Key Levels
Technically, gold has established support in the $3,600 to $3,700 range, while a sustained move above $3,800 would open the $4,000 conversation that banks now cite.
Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 average to $4,000, reflecting softer yields and ongoing official buying. Traders should watch ETF inflows and futures positioning, and Swiss exports to China as short-term demand signals.
A drop below $3,500 would suggest a corrective phase. For example, GLD added about $1.56 billion this week, a clear sign of retail and institutional demand.
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Risk Scenarios And Trade Triggers
Three scenarios matter this week for gold price prediction:
- Bull case: further Fed cuts and persistent central-bank purchases drive gold toward $4,000.
- Base case: choppy rallies with ETFs adding modestly and prices trading in a range.
- Bear case: stronger US growth or a yield spike forces a test of $3,500.
You can use options flow or size stops to manage directional trades and watch ETF flows for conviction.
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Conclusion
This week the Fed’s path versus steady central-bank buying decides momentum. Track real yields, ETF flows and Swiss shipments for the clearest signal.
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