Gold nears record highs amid weak jobs data and tariff-induced stagflation fears; silver extends gains toward $40 with strong deficits, but both face key tests ahead.
Gold trades near $3,400/oz, close to its June 2025 peak of about $3,449, on the back of softer U.S. jobs data that pushed September Fed rate-cut expectations above 90 %.
Silver climbs to roughly $39.40/oz, its highest level since 2011, outpacing gold’s 31 % YTD gain with a 36 % surge so far in 2025. But can these early-week gains hold under shifting fundamentals?
Let’s find out.
Gold’s Safe-Haven Surge and Its Limits
The weak July jobs report raised the U.S. unemployment rate to around 4.2 %, raising expectations of a Fed rate cut by September and lifting gold’s appeal.
Gold price forecasts in 2025 from analysts like Citi see continued upside toward $3,500–$3,600/oz as inflation pressures from tariffs linger and growth slows.
Still, gold pulled back from intraday highs, resisting a sustained break above $3,420/oz, as traders locked in gains. If upcoming economic data or central bank commentary shifts hawkish, that could cap further moves.
RELATED: 5 Reasons to Buy Gold in 2025
Silver’s Breakout: Structural Support Meets Technical Stress
Silver’s rise to $39.40/oz reflects tight physical markets, tariff distortions, and elevated investor interest. HSBC now forecasts an average of $35.14/oz in 2025, up from $30.28, citing continued deficits north of 206 million ounces, albeit easing in 2026.
Technical setups also point to a breakout: the gold-silver ratio has compressed from 105 to about 87, a potential mean reversion. That said, silver remains highly volatile; any industrial slowdown or profit-taking could force a pullback toward $35/oz.
RELATED: Is Silver A Good Investment Right Now?
Conclusion
Gold and silver show early momentum due to macro uncertainty and dovish expectations. Gold needs continued dovish Fed sentiment and weak data to hold above $3,400/oz.
Silver benefits from structural deficits and technical setups, but its path toward $40+/oz hinges on sustained industrial demand and investor conviction.
Watch upcoming jobs figures, Fed commentary, and technical levels to gauge whether the bounce can turn into firm support, or fade under pressure.
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