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Forecasting The 3 Top Opportunities Per Year Becomes InvestingHaven’s Mission

In our new section 3 TOP investing opportunities we explained that a typical year offers 3 top opportunities which bring mega returns. We are talking mega returns, no peanuts. We are talking 2-fold to 3-fold returns within one and the same year. InvestingHaven’s (adjusted) mission is to forecast those 3 top opportunities per year, with a minimum goal of catching 2 of the 3 opportunities for followers.

This mission was inspired by combining 2 investing principles.

  • One comes from legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller. His point of view is that it is only some 2 or 3 moments per year that he got really excited.
  • The other one comes from Peter Schiff his “Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets”. It essentially points out that there is always a bull market somewhere meaning one asset class (at a minimum) is always trending.

By combining both investing insights we also derived our 1/99 Investing Principles which is a variation on Pareto’s 80/20 principles but then applied to investing and markets. It says that investing in markets is subject to extremely asymmetric dynamics. Read more about Tsaklanos his 1/99 Investing Principles.

Forecasting The 3 Top Opportunities Per Year

So far the theory!

What does this mean for followers, in practice?

In actively participating for many, many years in markets, and after studying for many thousands of hours charts it became blatantly clear that mega returns come from one of these 3 sectors: technology specific sectors, commodities, emerging markets (countries or sectors).

So which opportunities are we looking at? Examples include:

  • 2010: silver price rises between 2-fold and 3-fold within 12 months
  • 2011: gold price more than doubles within 18 months
  • 2012: biotech stocks go ballistic
  • 2013: 3D printing stocks go ballistic
  • 2013: solar energy stocks go ballistic
  • 2014: China’s stock market rises between 2-fold and 3-fold within 12 months
  • 2015: crude oil crash (short opportunity) falls almost 80% in 12 months
  • 2016: sugar price and base metals go ballistic
  • 2016: banking stocks rise strongly (probably the weakest in this whole list)
  • 2017: Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies rise 10-fold
  • 2017: semiconductor stocks go ballistic

The type of chart we are talking about is this (one illustration of China in 2014):

forecasting top 3 opportunities

China’s stock market rose from 2,000 to 5,400 points in 2014

4 Reasons Why A Minority Of Investors Is Able To Lock In These Mega Returns

Reason 1: Identifying the trend requires a lot of hard work. We are talking thousands of hours of research. We are talking thousands of charts with annotations that need to be monitored. Most investors don’t go that far, most investors even are not aware this is the type of effort that is required. It is the effort to identify the entry point way before the herd wakes up.

Reason 2: Lack of an exit plan right after getting into the market is the second problem. It is mandatory to have a very disciplined exit strategy, and define this as soon as the parabolic phase starts.

Reason 3: Falling in love with the investment is another reason. Love is an emotion, and emotions are your biggest enemy, and have the potential to destroy your account value. The one characteristic of all these top investing opportunities is that they have a short-lived period in which they really go ballistic. After that it is over for a couple of years at best (many, many years worst case). Never fall in love!

Reason 4: The (number of) sources of information to make decisions are _not_ social media nor financial media. They are not meant to make you a better investor, they are meant to bring lots of content, that’s a big difference! Pick your sources according to the principle less is more.

Note that our adjusted mission is also updated in our “About Us” section. We are really serious about this.

 
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