The media is all about May 9th, Victory Day in Russia. We are all about May 9th in our weekend alerts to premium members. That’s not because of Victory Day but because of the rather hidden 6 month cycle in markets. This 6 month cycle tends to impact all markets. Did anyone tell you about the importance of May 9th and November 9th in recent history of financial markets? We talk about it, abundantly, in all our premium services just because it’s a crucial 6 month cycle. May 9th will be important, but not in a way you would expect.
The details are reserved for premium members.
What we can share, in the public space, is how important the 6 month cycle is. In fact, it leaves traces in leading indicators as well as leading indexes.
Here is the problem: it is mostly not clear, on the day itself (May 9th, November 9th) what exactly the impact will be.
Here is how it works: some leading indicators or some leading indexes tend to print an important ‘chart event’ on those days. Think Sherlock Holmes, you have to filter out relevant data points from irrelevant data. You then have to start connecting the dots. Some things are clear immediately, some need up to 8 weeks to get clear.
For ‘do it yourself’ investors we share the SPX chart with our own annotations: the green arrows are either May 9 or November 9. Now, combine this with leading indicators like bond yields, leading currencies, volatility indexes. You’ll start seeing some pieces of the puzzle in how the 6 month cycle comes to life.
In the weekend updates shared with premium members we bring up this 6 month cycle in great detail. We also made clear that we will follow up, in the coming days and weeks, what we believe the impact will be of ‘chart events’ that will be printed tomorrow, May 9th, 2022.
Tip: currencies are testing multi-year support/resistance levels, bond yields are testing multi-year resistance levels, the S&P 500 is testing multi-year support levels. Could the picture be any clearer? May 9th, 2022 should be a turning point, the only question is in which direction.
