The price of copper performed very well this year. One year ago we released our Copper Price Forecast 2017 in which we identified $2.10 as the line in the sand: “as long as the copper price remains above $2.10 we believe the price of copper will go higher or stabilize in 2017.” So what where does the copper market stand right now, and what is InvestingHaven’s copper price forecast for 2018?
Moreover, as a retrospective, we believe it is fair to quote the following two paragraphs from an article we wrote this summer, i.e. It’s Official: Copper Price Breaks Out in which we identified the next important price level $3.00, and we wrote:
As outlined earlier the breakout of copper took place around year-end, once copper broke out of its falling channel. We provided extensive coverage of that important ‘event’: this article written by our team in November last year Copper Price At Secular Breakout Point and Copper Price: Tactical Bull Market Ending Once $2.50 Broken.
Copper decided to respect its breakout, and we said the ultimate confirmation of the secular breakout kicks in at $3.00. With the caveat that this breakout can potentially be invalidated we believe the copper market is very bullish right now.
We sometimes read in the comment section that readers (fortunately a small number of people) don’t get the point of going back in time and quoting previous articles. Just to get things straight: no we are not a narcissistic group of people who get live to pride ourselves. We go back in time to see how strong our forecasts were. We will indicate if we made a mistake, and openly admit this. How many analysts or researchers have you seen doing this, in all openness and transparency?
Our copper price forecast for 2018
When it comes to the price of copper in 2018 we see a very interesting pattern on copper’s chart. In sum, copper looks strong, and we stick to our belief that $3 was a very important price level.
The pattern we see on copper’s chart which is the basis for our copper price forecast 2018: a wide gap between $3 and $4. Yes, correct, we believe that copper will rise to $4 in 2018, provided of course that $3 holds strong.
Some readers ask us, after they have read our forecasts, why we do not take important news items into account. When it comes to the copper market we read, among many other news updates:
- Copper’s correlation with China’s market
- Chinese demand for copper
- Economic fundamentals in the global economy
- Supply decreases driven by strikes of copper miners.
We are not saying this is unimportant news and while we are not saying there is or isn’t any correlation. What we are saying is that this type of news is not the primary source of data which investors should use to determine future price action. It is also not the type of information that primarily drives prices.
In other words, even if the fundamentals in the copper market can be very strong it will be the price will determine the timing of a decline or increase of copper prices.
That is why we prefer to stick to copper’s chart when making a copper price forecast.
As said, copper’s price has entered a bullish area. Between $3 and $4 the copper market is bullish. Above $4 it is wildly bullish … but that’s probably not for 2018 but rather for an even longer term forecast which we will do in some 12 months from now.
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