Markets are obsessed with numbers. It’s fascinating what you can find when you look at charts purely from the lens of numbers. It is no secret that we are wildly bullish silver, long term. Our silver forecast for 2023 remains 34 USD, if this number is not met by December it will be a few months later (but not later than that). We continue to believe that an historic silver rally will start soon, as per the gold to silver ratio. This may be in contrast with how investors currently experience their silver exposure because the current silver consolidation feels endless. That’s not what it is, in reality. When focusing on dominant numbers on the silver chart in 2023 and combining it with the dominant chart, we come to a completely different conclusion.
We said it many times and we will say it again: the long term chart of silver is absolutely spectacular. Even linear charts, like this silver historic chart, show how powerful the long term reversal is.
Silver chart 2023 and the consolidation
Let’s focus on SLV ETF as the most interesting silver chart in 2023.
The daily chart is shown below. A few chart ‘events’ that stand out: the 3-year falling trendline (which is broken to the upside), the 50% retracement level (which was tested many times in 2023), The series of reversals in 2023.
Equally important, the entire consolidation structure is occurring within the structure that was created by the explosive 3-week price movement that occurred in July of 2020.
Silver chart and the number 22
Recently, we wrote Silver’s Secular Breakout Now 44 Days In Progress in which we mentioned:
The secular breakout started in the first days of April, when silver cleared the multi-year falling trendline. No, this is no technical analysis, it simply is charting 101. The entire investor and trading community looks at these trendlines, the help in decisioning. Here is the point with the 44 day secular breakout process: bulls or bears will give up at a certain point. It is too costly to keep on betting if you are on the wrong side of the trade, especially if it lasts +44 days.
It’s getting interesting, especially once you start looking at the SLV chart focusing on the number 22 and its multiples. Here is what you start seeing:
- Price: 22 coincides with 38.2% retracement level since the peak set in August of 2020. The fine yellow line on the chart below depicts that level.
- Chart: the chart structure in 2023 is entirely centered around creating reversals right below the price point 22. We did indicate this with the yellow circles on the chart.
- Time: the number of trading days in which SLV traded below 22 USD has been multiples of 22, primarily 44 days. Even last year, when SLV fell through 22, it spent 176 trading days before getting back to that level (in that period, it created an epic bullish reversal which took the form of a triple bottom). Note that 176 is a multiple of 22 (8x 22 days), see annotation on the chart.
The focal point of the SLV chart remains 22, SLV worked hard to created bullish reversals below 22, it now is above this level. Please take a moment to look at the SLV chart, focusing on the price point 22 USD, the bullish reversals created below that price point that lasted 2x 22 days.
Silver chart 2023 exhibits time/price harmony
There is an harmonic state when there are powerful time/price dynamics, nicely in synch. Very often, strong number very often appear to be dominant.
This should not be confused with harmonic patterns, introduced by Gartley in 1932, which is the study of patterns that show ABCD patterns based on Fibonacci numbers.
While the silver chart 2023, as per SLV ETF, keeps on hovering around the price point 22, which is one of the strongest Fibonacci retracement levels, it is not exactly the same as a harmonic pattern. What we are saying is that price/time are harmonic, with 22 being the dominant number.
The key take-away of all this is that this setup is orderly. It may not feel like that, simply because silver is such a volatile asset. But orderly and harmonic is a conclusion that comes from studying numbers and patterns. The more harmonic, the more powerful the eventual outcome will be. That is the one and only thing that matters to silver bulls.
Conclusion & take-aways for investors
The silver chart 2023 reveals compelling insights that are indicative of an significant price move: the SLV chart’s long-term reversal pattern, notably, the price point of $22 has emerged as a powerful level of significance. The chart structure in 2023 appears to pivot around this level, with bullish reversals consistently forming just below $22. Moreover, the number of trading days during which SLV traded below $22 has followed a harmonic pattern, primarily lasting 44 days, emphasizing the importance of this level.
As the silver market continues to hover around $22, the orderly and synchronized price and time dynamics suggest a potential long term bull run is on the horizon.
For silver investors, understanding the dynamics of the silver chart 2023 is of utmost importance in making informed decisions. The significance of the $22 price point, combined with its harmonic alignment, indicates the potential for a powerful price move. With our long-term forecast for silver set at $34, the ongoing consolidation period should not be mistaken for a lack of opportunity.
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