The price of palladium (PALLADIUM) lost 6 pct on Wednesday March 27th 2019. That is the largest one-day decline in many months. Did the palladium bull market end and is our palladium forecast of $2500 invalid now?
The decline was really powerful.
In order the answer the question how impactful this is we have to check the chart. No fundamental analysis, no news, no sentiment analysis will help to answer this question.
The chart has a very clear message: the tactical rising channel got broken to the downside. The palladium price fell straight to the top of the secular channel.
What can happen from here?
- Best case, palladium rises back into its higher rising channel (above $1500) in the next 3 trading days in which case it will be bullish and no harm done.
- Base case, palladium continues to trade above $1440 in which case we are in a neutral scenario. It can go both ways, but $1440 remains the line in the sand.
- Worst case, palladium continues to fall, and with 3 consecutive daily closes below $1440 it has invalidated our $2500 projection.
Investors need to stay factual and monitor those few price points, as per our 1/99 Investing Principles.