Gold and silver did amazingly well since June of this year, they are now taking a pause. Palladium did well last year until early this year. But what about platinum? Why is platinum not rising? Will it follow the rest of the precious metals crowd or will it continue its bear market? We believe 2020 may be the year for platinum!
We wrote an important piece earlier this year: Which Precious Metal Is Worth Buying In 2019?
We referred to previous work in which we showed that there always a bull market in one of the 4 precious metals. By analyzing the chart of the 4 precious metals we concluded: Although there have been periods that multiple precious metals were rising simultaneously we also see periods in which just one precious metal was rising.
- The outlier has been palladium a couple of times in the past, primarily between 1996-2000 as well as in the last 3 years.
- Gold has a track record of leading silver from a bear market into a bull market. Silver tends to be a laggard, though has explosive power once it starts trending.
- Platinum is mostly correlated to gold, but we have seen a couple of instances in which it was rising as gold was weak or flat.
So if there is always a bull market in one of the 4 precious metals, and we know palladium had a great time last year, and gold/silver this year … then what about platinum?
This one sentence from the above quote is important: Platinum is mostly correlated to gold, but we have seen a couple of instances in which it was rising as gold was weak or flat.
So there must come a time in which platinum will do well, and it may be correlated to gold or it comes after gold is strong.
Well there you have the case for platinum to shine in 2020 or, ultimately, in 2021.
That’s also what the platinum secular chart shows. It has a giant triangle in the making for almost 2 decades!
This triangle is coming to resolution but may take one more year, if not 1.5 yr.
One thing is clear: platinum will go up to test its resistance (currently $1120 but falling), and once it breaks out we will see $1300 in no time and followed by $1800 ultimately.
These will be the data points which we’ll use to write our platinum price forecast for 2020 which will be out in the next few weeks!
