Silver was one of the hot topics of 2021 in our public blog posts but also in our premium services. Silver ‘decided’ not to break out this year, and it is pretty clear that silver will not move above 28 USD before year end. When will silver finally start the big run that we are waiting for, and what to expect in 2022 in terms of a silver forecast?
First of all, it should be noted that silver has 3 leading indicators. While two of them were really bullish silver in the end did not do anything ‘interesting’ since June of this year. Which is the one leading indicator then that prevented silver from rising? In the end if 2 out of the 3 leading indicators are bullish it implies that 1 of the 3 was powerful enough to push silver back.
It was the USD, and it is clear that the USD has an unusually strong impact on metals and markets in 2021.
In fact it is the first time in 7 years that InvestingHaven’s silver price prediction will not be accurate. For 7 straight years the silver (also gold) predictions were impressively accurate but ‘King Dollar’ decided otherwise in 2021.
What we believe at this point in time is that the USD first has to go up (above 94 points, presumably in the first half of 2022). This will ‘suppress’ precious metals prices even more, but on its way down it could unleash the power that precious metals need to finally start a bull run.
On the chart it is clear that silver continues to improve, that’s on a long term timeframe. Below is the daily chart, it is becoming a huge W reversal pattern, very bullish provided 22 USD holds on a 3 day closing basis.
For now, we watch the 24.72 USD level for a confirmation of a short term bull run which will be capped. Longer term we watch for a replay of 2010/2011, and we have a very clear picture of the characteristics we need to see before getting really excited.
In our Trade Alerts service we gave guidance for a short term SLV trade. It is available for Trade Alerts members in the weekend update.