Bitcoin had a rough week. No surprise for loyal readers because we said time was up. After the pretty violent decline on Friday, August 19th, we now find Bitcoin testing a really crucial level.
About a week ago, we explained Why January 1st, 2023 Will Be A Crucial Date for Bitcoin. In the same article, we pointed out that Bitcoin is likely eyeing 29.9k but we also emphasized that BTC did not have more time than one week to move higher:
Short term, we can clearly see how BTC is trying to move in this rounded pattern. The first target of this pattern is 29.9k. Moreover, it needs to accelerate its move higher the coming days. Bitcoin’s summer rally might happen next week and it could mark the end of the summer rally in crypto. We expect volatility to pick up going into Fall.
Two weeks ago, we were even very specific in Bitcoin’s Most Trendless Period In History But For How Long:
In last week’s article Will Bitcoin Move Back To 30k we pointed out that BTC can run to 29.9k, potentially, but it should do so not later than a specific date. The two dates we have are Tuesday Aug 9th and Friday Aug 19th.
You can see how we found August 19th on the chart as a crucial date and the endpoint of the summer rally.
The rounded pattern was broken to the downside on Wednesday, Bitcoin was not able to stage a rally heading into August 19th. Consequently, the exact opposite is likely to happen: a move lower.
Interestingly, the lack of volatility in Ethereum (mid-July) resulted in a solid rally while the lack of volatility in BTC resulted in a move lower.
While there is no reason to be concerned looking at crypto from a long term investor perspective, there certainly is reason to be serious with the current level. As seen on below chart, there is medium to long term trendline that connects the June/July 2022 lows with the Corona crash lows. This level better holds, if not the June lows are the lowest acceptable support level.
In our crypto service, we recommended taking profits on the Ethereum position which auto-trading members took back in July. We are also compiling a shortlist of tokens that are likely to outperform when the next crypto rally starts.
