The Bitcoin price is falling for 10 days in a row now. The Bitcoin price falling must be bearish, right? The crypto market must be in bad shape. So what to make out of this? The short answer: Bitcoin price falling is not bearish per se, it does not tell anything. Primarily the charts have the right answer.
Bitcoin price falling: let’s turn to Bitcoin news
The first and intuitive reaction of the vast majority of investors is to turn to the … news. Of course, because news is according to human nature the source of information. ‘I certainly will find some clues into the direction of the market in the news’ is the underlying thinking.
Let’s do the exercise. This is what Google News returns today for the word Bitcoin:
- Bitcoinist writes GOOGLE TRENDS INDICATE WORST IS OVER FOR BITCOIN. Take-away: So this must be good, fortunately!
- CNBC announces Bitcoin could come to your retirement account, thanks to Starbucks’ crypto venture. Take-away: More good news, this is great.
- Cointelegraph notes Despite NYSE’s ‘Biggest News of the Year’ for Bitcoin, Crypto Markets Plummet in a Blink. Take-away: That’s what I was afraid of, crypto markets plummeting, what an ugly word, what a bearish situation, how can I be so stupid to ignore this.
- Forbes publishes Bitcoin Dips Below $7,000, Hitting Lowest In 2 Weeks. Take-away: See, this is a bearish trend.
- Verge says New York Stock Exchange owner is launching a bitcoin exchange. Take-away: Great fundamental news, this smart guy knows what he is doing, certainly good for the fundamentals of the crypto market.
- Forbes says Bitcoin Price In 2020 — A Very Bullish And A Very Bearish Forecast. Take-away: Confused.
- Bitcoinist writes BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS: BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE NEWS. Take-away: Even more confused, what should I make out of those trendlines, moving averages and Fibonacci things.
As said over and over again by InvestingHaven’s research team: news is noise. As per Tsaklanos his 1/99 Investing Principles it is a tiny 1 pct of news that is relevant to investors, the remaining 99 pct is misleading at worst and makes for nice stories to read and sell advertising at best.
The primary focus for investors is the daily, weekly and monthly charts. This avoid investors to get caught up in the never ending streams of headlines, but also keep focused on the dominant trends. It also allows for peace of mind which then results in less but better trades. As per the 1/99 rule investors should only trade any market 1 pct of times per year, that is 4 or 5 days at a maximum.
Bitcoin price falling: let’s turn to the Bitcoin chart
We wrote 3 weeks ago this piece Crypto Market Breaks Out. InvestingHaven Flashes A Buy Alert. This is an important quote from that article:
Almost exactly as forecasted by InvestingHaven’s research team on January 27th 2018 to their premium subscribers in the midst of panick when the crypto market was crashing. It is hard to believe, but it is true: InvestingHaven forecasted that around summer time the crypto market crash would end and make place for a new bullish trend. This forecast is materializing right here right now.
Bitcoin, our leading indicator for for the crypto market, is breaking out on its daily chart. It needs 3 to 4 days to confirm its breakout, meaning that it must continue to trade above $7150 for those consecutive days. Our feeling is that it will happen.
The Bitcoin chart we featured in that article shows the breakout of Bitcoin after the 6 month crash and retracement period.
As said, investors should focus only on those few important price points on a chart. For Bitcoin it is the $7000 to $7100 level, followed by the $6400 to $6500 level.
For now, even if Bitcoin has fallen non-stop for 10 trading days, Bitcoin’s price is trading right at the $7000 level. It may fall one or two days below it, and no harm will be done.
Ultimately, as long as the breakout point is respected, the one(s) indicated on below chart, there is no reason to be concerned whatsoever. Let the market do its work, and stay focused on those few price points when checking any chart or news item, is the best advice for crypto investors.
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