As per our Bitcoin price forecast for 2019 we expect the crypto market to become bullish. That’s our longer term forecast. Shorter term, however, we wrote last week that Bitcoin will start trending in the next 2 to 3 weeks. One week has passed in the meantime so we want to revisit our thesis. Unsurprisingly, we are still on the path we outlined last week. More importantly, if Bitcoin continues to trade flat it might be a good thing. Here is why the flat Bitcoin price might be bullish for the next few months going into 2019.
Short term Bitcoin price chart reaches decisive price point
As we come closer to the resolution of Bitcoin’s new trend we want to follow this market closer than usual.
As per Tsaklanos his 1/99 investing principles it is only 1% of the time that a market is making important moves, the other 99% markets mostly move in a similar trend and are not worth following closely.
Similarly, it is 1% of price points that have a decisive importance.
The daily chart below shows the 11-month bear market of Bitcoin. It is clearly setting up for resolution. Pay special attention to the 3 falling trend lines. Presumably, one of the 3 is the dominant trend line. If that is true (we consider it a very high probability) then Bitcoin needs either a small push higher or a continuation of its flat trading. Either way it certainly should not fall more than 5 pct.
What happens in both scenarios?
In case Bitcoin goes higher from here, say just 10% to slightly above 7k USD, it will have set a first higher high. That’s a pattern that is very powerful, and certainly bullish.
In case Bitcoin continues to trade flat in a range between 6k and 7k USD it will step outside of the 3d trendline, and officially not any longer in a downtrend. The following saying will apply: “the longer the base the higher the space”.
The bearish scenario is a drop below 6k USD for at least 5 consecutive days.
Long term Bitcoin price chart suggests trading in its ‘support band’
As shown in our 5 cryptocurrency predictions for 2019 the long term Bitcoin price chart is now moving into its lowest band.
Stated differently, even if Bitcoin would fall to 5k USD it would still be in its long term uptrend.
That’s why it is important to always check the short term as well as the long term Bitcoin price chart.
If we combine the insights from the daily chart with the one from Bitcoin’s long term chart we conclude the following. First, flat trading would be bullish going into 2019. Second, even in case Bitcoin would fall lower there is plenty of downside until support is reached on the long term pattern. Third, a small push higher would be amazingly bullish going into 2019.
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