The crypto market is in great shape. Fundamentals are very strong, and the crypto market is trending exactly as forecasted a year ago in our 5 Must-Read Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2019. Bitcoin (BTC) shows exceptional strength, especially as this is just the beginning of the new crypto bull market (surprisingly, certainly unexpected, even Ethereum (ETH) is outperforming the crypto market). With Bitcoin close to $12k it is almost halfway our BTC forecast of $25k for this entire crypto bull market. What’s next for the crypto market? If anything we expect a healthy correction in the short to medium term. However, if the current bull run continues we will see the most powerful bull run ever in history of accessible financial instruments! You read this correctly, if BTC continues its rise we will write history.
There are two important things to note when it comes to the current state of the crypto market.
First, this is the start of a new bull cycle. It’s the 3d crypto bull market, and we have a unique long term chart which shows this: must see crypto chart on this page. The chart maps fundamentals, innovation and chart patterns in a way nobody else has done before!
The first phase in a new bull run is one that starts slowly. The bullish sentiment, and according price action, picks up as the bull market matures. So a parabolic rise, like the one we see in Bitcoin recently, is not sustainable in the first stage of a new bull market.
Second, the crypto market is maturing. Especially since Bitcoin has futures from official exchanges like the CME Group it is now a mature financial instrument. This is a fundamental shift compared to a few years ago when Bitcoin could only be traded on crypto exchanges.
If we combine both points outlined above we expect the crypto market, driven by leading indicator Bitcoin, to behave in similar ways as any other market. Typically, bull markets evolve in 3 phases: slow rise, accelerated rise, parabolic rise.
We expect the same in Bitcoin, and the crypto market, in the next 24 to 36 months.
As seen on below chart, Bitcoin is now trading around our $11.7k price target. Intuitively we would say that the long awaited healthy correction is just around the corner.
However, what if the current rise continues? Even though we would say the probability is very low, we should not exclude any scenario in a crazy market like crypto. If the current rise continues we will write history.
Never before in financial markets did any mature and widely accessible financial instrument show such an extremely bullish price action at the start of a new bull market.
Will this time be different?
This one sentence has been used so often by investors and analysts, and mostly things are not different. We don’t see a continuation of Bitcoin’s awesome bull run in the short to medium term. But like everything in markets even though probabilities are low they should not be excluded.
We will find out very soon. The Bitcoin price chart below shows very clear price points. Any sustained rise above the $12k-$13k level will historic!
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