It was a very, very interesting week in crypto markets, especially on the BTC chart. What we got from the market is pure joy if you look at it from a chart perspective, but certainly it was much more loaded (emotionally, mentally) when looking at it from an investor’s perspective.
This is the chart we shared in our last crypto post one week ago Crypto Markets: On The Verge Of A Major Breakdown, Testing Crucial Support (Sunday, July 18th):
And this is the chart one week later (Saturday, July 24th):
This was our commentary last week:
In other words Bitcoin now trades in a decision window. And decision windows are that: moments in time in which a direction is being defined. Stated differently, this is not a time to forecast, it is a time to wait and understand the new direction.
What we got is a recovery on day #3 of the breakdown. And because BTC was trading for 2 full days below 30k it was clearly a failed breakdown, also called a bear trap.
Now, you might argue: why worry, BTC always resolves higher.
Well, you might have said so when BTC was up there at 50k, violating crucial support at 47-49k. It went much, much lower after violating support.
You simply don’t want to stand in the way of a tsunami of selling, and there is no way of knowing for sure if a crucial support level will hold or not.
In other words, better safe than sorry.
What’s next, is the question?
We identified August 6th, and the period from now heading up to August 6th, as a crucial time window. We concluded this based on a different BTC chart which we published yesterday in the research area of our premium crypto investing research service. We concluded “Could August 6th be the start of one bull run? It might be, but the jury will be out until that day.” We will follow up very closely because the next 10 trading days combined with the bear trap from last week will be telling about the crypto trend in August and September. Note that the 18k price target is still in the air, but it might come in several months or next year. It will certainly not come next week, but it’s unclear if August will be bullish or bearish, we will know on August 6th for sure.