Our annual platinum price forecast is one of those important forecasts because of the upside potential of this grey metal. According to our platinum forecast we expect a bullish breakout early 2021. Platinum’s price ultimately has an upside potential of 80% ($1800/oz), in 2022 or beyond. In 2021 we see price targets of $1,350 and $1,500. That’s an upside potential of 35% to 50%. The prerequisite is that platinum breaks above $1045/oz. Our 2021 forecast for platinum is wildly bullish.
As per Tsaklanos his 1/99 Investing Principles it is only 1% of the time that platinum is wildly bullish. So this platinum prediction is all about trying to understand that next big move. We want to know when it may happen and how to recognize it. The goals is to catch the first next big move in platinum’s price.
Why This Platinum Price Prediction?
What we are really (only) interested in is this to catch these major moves in platinum. We are talking the type of move that makes your platinum investment a multi bagger in 6 months time. That’s the only reason why we do this research, and why we publish this platinum price prediction.
Based on the elements in this article we conclude that the likelihood in which platinum will make a major move is increasing exponentially as 2021 kicks off.
Our Platinum Price Forecast for 2021
Let’s start with our conclusion. Readers who don’t want to understand our underlying forecasting method can ignore the rest of the article.
One major conclusion is that platinum usually moves up strongly when silver is in a tactical or secular bull market. Sometimes silver rallies first, sometimes it is platinum that goes first. Either way those few really big platinum moves occur at times when silver has varying degrees of bullish momentum.
One other leading indicator, platinum’s COT report as per platinum’s futures market, suggests there is no major peak right now.
That said, when it comes to platinum’s chart pattern(s) we see that platinum is preparing an unusually powerful bullish breakout which would bring the price of platinum to $1350/oz, and next to $1500/oz in 2021.
The million dollar question is when this bullish breakout with a 30% to 50% upside potential may start? We believe this may happen early 2021. However, depending on how bullish silver becomes and how platinum will react once it rises to the $1045/oz area. The line in the sand for our platinum forecast 2021 is $1045/oz.
Our Platinum Price Forecast for 2021
Based on the leading indicators (or lack thereof) and more importantly the chart setup we see the following platinum price forecast for 2021.This is our forecasted platinum price for the coming years. Prices reflect platinum's spot price.
|Year||Platinum price forecast||Conditions||Invalid|
|2021||Wildly bullish with price targets of $1,300 and $1,500||Breaks above $1,045||If platinum breaks below $780|
|2022||Wildly bullish||Breaks out of its triangle chart pattern||If platinum breaks below $780|
Leading Indicators for our Platinum Price Forecast
Interestingly, platinum is one the few assets that have a very limited number of leading indicators.
One very unreliable leading indicator that only works in times of extremes is extreme supply demand imbalances. This only occurs once in a decade or every 2 decades so we don’t really factor this in.
Even Bloomberg did an attempt to define leading indicators for the future price of platinum. They looked at the price chart of platinum, the palladium to platinum ratio, supply cuts, platinum ETF holdings, and the platinum futures market.
We are on record saying that the first 4 are no leading indicators whatsoever, with the exception of extreme supply shortages which, as said only occurs every 10 to 20 years.
On the futures market there is indeed some truth in it, but not in the way Bloomberg explained it.
Anyhow, we consider one of the two valid leading indicators for the future price of platinum to be the platinum futures market COT report.
The way to understand this indicator is that it signals a bottom or top when hedge funds have extremely low or high positions. This does not occur often though, certainly not as often as in the gold or silver futures market.
The other leading indicator based on our research is the platinum to silver price ratio. We discuss both in more detail.
Leading Indicator: Platinum COT (medium confidence level)
Similar to the gold and silver COT report we look at extreme net positions of non commercials. Every time non commercials are 60,000 contracts net long it tends to signal a major price peak.
However, the opposite is not always true.
The bottoms do not always coincide with extreme low net positions from non commercials.
So this indicator is not very reliable. It partially works to signal major peaks, but not necessarily the bottoms.
Be that as it may, the futures market positioning is wildly bullish for platinum’s price. Leading indicator #1 confirms a wildly bullish platinum price forecast for 2021.
Leading Indicator: Platinum to Silver Ratio (reliable)
The most reliable leading indicator appears to be the price of silver. In particular the platinum to silver price ratio is a good indicator for when the price of platinum is about to surge.
If we look back 50 years we see that platinum tended to move strongly higher every time silver did so as well. A few times silver went up first, but a few time platinum rallied much more than silver or did so before silver.
So what we can say is that platinum tends to make those big moves up only if silver is in a bull market. This may be an aggressive bull market or a tactical bull market.
As per our silver forecast 2021 we believe that silver will do well at a certain point in time. It may take a while, and that’s because of gold: as per our gold forecast 2021 we expect gold to extensively test its former all-time highs. This will put pressure on silver’s price … until it doesn’t.
Platinum indicator #2, its correlation to silver’s bull market, confirms a secular bullish trend in 2021 even though it may hesitate for a while. This underpins out bullish latinum price forecast for 2021.
Leading Indicator: Platinum ETF Holdings (reliable)
The third leading indicator is the value and number of ounces held in ETFs.
Surprise surprise, the platinum ounces held in ETFs is exploding. This may lead to supply shortage, which obviously is supportive of higher platinum prices.
We are no experts in supply/demand data in the platinum market. But our common sense says this: if all 3 leading indicators discussed in this article point in the same direction, and the chart confirms this direction, it probably leads to the investing thesis that our platinum prediction for 2021 should be wildly bullish.
Platinum Chart and Price Targets
Let’s now combine the findings of our leading indicators with the observations platinum’s long term chart.
Chart-wise we see 2 major trends based which are reflected in 2 different patterns.
- The first pattern is this giant consolidation in the last 5 years.
- The second pattern is the falling trendline in the last 8 years.
Important to note is that both patterns now coincide, and the long term patterns are now in conflict to resolve. This is a prerequisite for an outcome, presumably a bullish outcome.
Our #platinum price forecast for is wildly bullish for 2021. We look at leading indicators and must-see charts in this article to predict 30% to 50% upside potential in platinum's price. $PLATINUM Click To Tweet
If and when platinum decides to break above this grey consolidation area, which in the end is nothing else than a long term bullish reversal pattern, we will see a powerful bull market. It will be the type of ‘big move’ we want to ride. This makes us so bullish when it comes to our platinum forecast for 2021.
We believe the odds favor a big move in 2021, and continuation in 2022.
We keep a close eye on the flipside of this bullish story. Bearish momentum will pick up once platinum closes for 3 consecutive months below $790. Not likely to happen, but the flipside always has to be considered by investors!
The shorter term chart, the weekly over 6 years, shows that platinum required 2 attempts to break above its falling 8 year trendline. See green circles.
It also shows that right before 2021 kicks off there was a first attempt to break above its horizontal breakout level at $1,045/oz.
As soon as platinum breaks above $1,045/oz in 2021 it will qualify as a breakout. That’s when the new green channel on below and above charts will become dominant!
Results of our previous Platinum PredictionsThis is an overview of our platinum price forecasts from last year. We published this forecast early in the year. Prices reflect platinum's spot price.
|Year||Our forecast||Highs||Lows||Accuracy of our outlook|
|2019||Bullish with price target high $1,190||1,000||780||Bullish but price target not (yet) achieved|
|2020||Mildly bullish||1,075||578||Highly accurate|
Platinum Predictions by other Analysts
Note that there is hardly any platinum prediction for 2021 published. The only source available at the time of writing comes from Reuters which polled 24 analysts and traders.This is an overview of forecasted platinum prices for 2020 by other analysts. We don't support these forecasts, we just share them to illustrate how other analysts think about a platinum price forecast for 2020 and beyond.
|Year||Analyst||Platinum price prediction|
|Platinum price forecast 2021||InvestingHaven.com||First target $1,300. Second target $1,500.|
|Platinum price forecast 2021||Auctus Metals||Bullish without price target|
|Platinum price forecast 2021||Reuters median forecast by 32 analysts and traders in July||$913|
|Platinum price forecast 2021||Reuters median forecast by 26 analysts and traders in January||$1,013|
Continuous Follow Up on our Platinum Forecast (free forecasting email newsletter)
We absolutely recommend to subscribe to our free newsletter in order to receive future updates. We publish updates on our platinum forecast. But we also do publish other forecasts.
We continuously, throughout the year, publish updates on our annual forecasts. Any revision in our forecast are published in the public domain and appear in our free newsletter. Therefore, the only way to track the pulse of markets and stay tuned with our forecasts is to subscribe to our free newsletter >>
Ed. note: Want to know how to play the platinum market? We want to catch those big moves in gold, silver and platinum miners. Subscribe to our free newsletter, and get premium insights. More importantly, for very detailed entry and exit signals in the platinum market we recommend signing up to our Momentum Investing service in which we track precious metals very closely and take platinum mining positions whenever we see an opportunity (which is likely to happen early 2021).
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