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Home » Gold » Gold: Forget ATH, The Real Secular Breakout Confirmation Is Here

Gold: Forget ATH, The Real Secular Breakout Confirmation Is Here

Gold's recent test of ATH is not the big news. The really big news is its secular breakout attempt.

Taki by Taki
January 29, 2025
in Gold
gold price breakout
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On the quarterly gold price chart, we observe a gold secular breakout. For now, it qualifies as an attempt. Confirming is pending, and a decisive date will be March 31st, 2025.

RELATED – Gold prediction 2025

There is a lot of chatter about gold’s test of ATH.

What goes unnoticed is gold’s attempt to invalidate a secular bearish chart structure.

Gold’s ATH is not a secular breakout

There is a tremendous supply of financial content related to gold.

However, financial and social media are very short term oriented.

Take the focus on gold’s ATH (here and here for instance). Gold’s test of ATH is attracting a lot of attention.

Why?

Because it’s easy to create content.

Investors are left with the perception that exceeding ATH is the most important thing.

We don’t think so, as there is a much more important ‘chart event’ to watch in the gold market.

Gold’s real secular breakout

The really important news comes from gold’s longest timeframe.

That’s not the daily gold price chart but rather the quarterly gold chart. Below is the 50-year gold chart.

As seen below, a true gold secular breakout is in progress now. And the secular breakout on gold’s chart coincides with the invalidation of the rising wedge which, by default, is a bearish structure.

What we are saying is that the only thing holding gold back, currently, is the potential rising wedge.

Conversely, once this rising wedge is cleared, gold is invalidating any potential bearish dynamics. By exclusion, that’s very (very) bullish.

gold price quarterly
Gold price quarterly chart – the bearish wedge is being invalidated – it’s the ultimate secular breakout confirmation

Gold’s moment to shine: the end of this & next quarter

When exactly will we know for sure that gold will confirm a secular breakout?

That’s going to be on the next 2 dates:

  • March 31st, 2025.
  • June 31st, 2025.

On both dates, gold will close a quarterly candlestick.

If this current quarterly candlestick as well as the next quarterly candlestick will close above the rising wedge, above $2,700 an Ounce, it will be the ultimate confirmation of a secular breakout in the gold market.

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Tags: GOLD
Taki

Taki

Taki is a chart analyst who is passionate about unlocking unique insights out the chart. While the vast majority of analysts remain focused on price analysis, he starts with timeline analysis and adds price analysis to this. In doing so, he developed a unique methodology to find opportunities in financial markets, across assets and markets.

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