Dow Jones Historical Chart On 100 Years *Must See Charts*

The Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years has a breathtaking setup. This post features several must see Dow Jones 100 year charts. The Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years has a breathtaking chart pattern.  Right after the Corona crash we wrote this “the Dow Jones 100 year chart suggests that this market is moving to 32,000 points where it will meet 100 year resistance”. Fast forward, two months before 2022 kicks in, we are on record saying that the Dow Jones Index is moving to 40,000 points in 2022. This forecast is based on the epic breakout on the 100 year Dow Jones chart.

The Dow Jones Industrials Index was founded on February 16th, 1885, as per Wikipedia. The index tracks 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States.

The Dow Jones organisation grew over time and now has lots of financial media in its group, think of MarketWatch and Barron’s.

Dow Jones Chart On 100 Years

The longest timeframe of the Dow Jones chart is the quarterly chart on 100 years. This chart provides a breath taking picture with essentially one huge rising channel.

The one and only time that the Dow Jones index fell below its 100 year rising channel was in 1929-1933. No coincidence the Wall Street crash of 1929 resulted in the Dow Jones falling to levels so low even on a 100 year rising channel.

A rising channel is a common thing on any chart. However, it is really a beautiful setup on the Dow Jones 100 year chart.

Another important observation on the 100 year chart of the Dow Jones is what happens every time this index touches support as well as resistance.

Each and every time the top of this giant channel is tested it results in a long and/or exceptionally aggressive decline. The test of resistance took place only in 1928 and 2000. So any chartist with solid charting skills could have seen this market top coming way in advance. Similarly in 2007 the Dow Jones tested resistance of the upper band (right below resistance).

Dow Jones 100 Years Historical Chart: Distinct phases

Basically, between 1932 and 1966, the Dow Jones index has risen 10-fold.

Buying in 1966 would have been catastrophic for one’s portfolio. That is because the Dow was trading in the upper area of its long term channel. The Dow corrected combined with sideways trading during 2 decades only to test support levels multiple times. As of 1984, the Dow went in almost one straight line up until the year 2000.

Between 2000 and 2013 the Dow has traded in a wide range.

In 2013 a triple top breakout took place. Arguably, that’s the moment when the stock bull market started, not March 2009.

Right now, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is trading in its upper band of its long term rising channel. It does not trade at an extreme level though, it is some 25% to 30% below extreme levels.

Chart update: November 2021

Direction Of The Stock Market Based On The Dow Jones 100 Year Chart

It is tough to forecast future moves of U.S. stock markets solely based on the Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years. The 100 year timeframe is unusually long, so any forecast derived from this can only be very long term oriented.

We must use a shorter timeframe, and combine it with the 100 year Dow Jones chart. That’s why we include the 20 year Dow Jones chart.

Chart update: November 2021

For future price direction we use our proprietary method as explained in our piece detailing 100 investing tips. Essentially, it is a combination of leading indicators like 10-year Yields, currencies, as well as indicator indexes like the Russell 2000 that help forecast future stock market directions.

This is what we wrote long before the Dow Jones broke out of its 100 year rising channel:

However, there are 2 future scenarios we can potentially see in the Dow Jones historical chart on 100 years.

1. The Dow Jones Industrials Index has reached the upper area / band in its very long term rising channel since 2017. This happened only twice before: in 1929 and 2000. Given that this happens so rarely it may suggest that this is a major top in the making which will resolve to the downside.
2. However, we believe another scenario is more likely. The rise since 2009 happened from the median of this long term rising channel. It certainly does not compare with the rise between 1982 and 2000 (bottom to top of the channel). So the last 10 years saw a strong, but nowhere near an extreme rise. The thesis of this 2nd scenario is that the Dow Jones Industrials Index will continue to trade in its upper channel. This will deliver moderate but continuous gains in the next few years.

It is clear in the meantime that scenario #2 became the dominant scenario. Financial markets are writing history. Our forecast for scenario #2 to come true was another solid prediction.

Dow Jones In 2020: The Most Brutal Crash In History

This paragraph and below charts contain an up-to-date version of the Dow Jones long term chart on 100 years.

100 year Dow Jones chart right after the Corona crash

This is the up to date 100 year Dow Jones chart on March 27th, 2020, right after the lows were set.

Chart update: October 25th, 2020

Clearly the Corona crash came at a moment when the Dow Jones index was very close to its 100 year resistance level. However it did not touch it yet.

To be more precise the 100 year resistance point was 32,000 points. No coincidence that 32,000 was our target as described last year in A Dow Jones Forecast For 2020 And 2021 (32,000 Points).

There might be a reason why the Corona crash was so violent: the Dow Jones index was not far from its 100 year top. So there was much more downside potential, and the epidemic nature of the crash only accelerated this effect.

Dow Jones As 2022 Kicks Off

100 year Dow Jones chart right before 2022 kicks off – the secular breakout confirmed in 2021

This is the up to date 100 year Dow Jones chart in November of 2021, two months before 2022 kicks off.

It is hard to see but the Dow Jones broke through its 100 year rising channel. Absolutely phenomenal, markets are writing history!

Chart update: November 2021

When we zoom in a bit we can see this setup on the monthly chart (Dow Jones 20 years):

Chart update: November 2021

The close-up of the 100 year Dow Jones chart on the weekly timeframe give us the insight we need: this is a secular breakout, and it is confirmed. The 100 year rising trendline was broken to the upside back in March/April of 2021, and it was successfully ‘tested’ again in September/October of 2021.

Chart update: November 2021

The daily chart of the Dow Jones, the same chart as the other 100 year Dow Jones charts shown above, shows the ‘hesitation’ and ‘consolidation’ right above the 100 year channel.

Chart update: November 2021

In fact, 33k-34K points were nearly touched in the first week of October of 2021. And it was a successful test of the 100 year trendline. This means a secular breakout on the 100 year Dow Jones chart. This is huge, and financial media is obviously not watching these really important ‘events’ in markets.

Unbelieve Dow Jones charts, but all true.

Focus on the charts, ignore the news

One might ask why we are so much focused on the Dow Jones chart and so many other charts.

It is anyone’s intuitive reaction to focus on the news, and complement news with the charts.

We thoroughly disagree with this, and we can easily make the point by reviewing some stock market articles from the March period (the Corona crash lows).

Right at a time when stocks were starting a major uptrend the financial news was a depressed beyond anyone’s imagination. Just listening to the news would anyone lead to the conclusion that the crash had to become much worse.

Nothing was further from the truth. When stock market news was suggesting the worst was yet to come the leading stock market indexes were about to turn sharply higher.

The Great Coronavirus Crash of 2020 Is Different on Bloomberg (March 19th, 2020)

• This article published right at the lows of the Corona crash made you think that the market would come to a stand will as the economy would come to a stand still. As if markets follow the economy …
• It’s the opposite: the economy follows markets! And charts can help us stick to this truth.

Chart of Wall Street’s ‘fear’ index in 2020 illustrates how unhinged stock markets have been over coronavirus compared to the 2008 crisis on Marketwatch (March 12th, 2020)

• This article suggested a gradual increase of volatility, while volatility exploded a few days later only to start coming down 3 weeks later. An absolutely horrible prediction regardless whether it was very hard to predict at that point in time.

So you thought financial media would have it only wrong during the worst crash in history of markets? Again, nothing is further from the truth. Below are 3 illustrations of how financial media was bearish in September of 2021, days before a major bull run started (first week of October of 2021).

Stock Market’s September Slump Exposes Messy Underside on WSJ (Sept 30th, 2021)

Stocks Had Their Worst September in a Decade. October Might Bring More of the Same on Barron’s (Sept 30th, 2021)

Dow Plunges 550 Points As D.C. Uncertainty Fuels Stock Market’s Worst Month Of 2021 on Forbes (Sept 30th, 2021)

Again, these articles about the Dow Jones and other leading stock indexes appear when a (local) bottom is set. It is pointless to follow the news. It is smart to track the chart. The chart is leading, the news is lagging.

Enjoying our work? We invest in broad stocks in our Momentum Investing portfolio. Also our Trade Alerts premium service plays the S&P 500 in ways that exceed everyone’s expectation: simple but extremely effective. 

Our Must-Read 2022 Predictions

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